0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 W
擾動編號日期：2016 年 10 月 09 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 10 月 11 日 20 時
91W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11.3N.149.7E

kibishi0515

環境不適合持續發展 數值也不看好…GFS:走了一小段以後掛掉、EC:走了一小段多一點，氣壓微微下降了之後掛掉

t02436

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5N
149.5E,APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN, AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE OUTFLOW AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVERALL A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KNOTS). MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

是他! 還是位在130E至135E的這個??
許多數值都對他有反應!

kibishi0515

快要散掉了的樣子…大概就是Low到死為止了 後來的93W比這兩隻更有優勢的多