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20E.Seymour 高緯殞落 榮登2016東太風王

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-10-22 02:19 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級颶風  
編號:20 E
名稱:Seymour
20E.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 10 22 02
命名日期  :2016 10 24 05
撤編日期  :2016 11 01 22
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速:130 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓:943 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
91E.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.11N.96.5W

20161020.2127.f15.x.geovis.91EINVEST.20kts-1008mb-110N-965W.41pc.jpg
NHC : 40%

1. Showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broad
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
generally conducive for development of this disturbance over the
next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form early next
week while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent two_pac_2d1.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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劉瑞益@FB|2016-10-22 21:02 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升70%
1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located about 350 miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for development of this low during the next few days,
and a tropical depression will likely form by early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
two_pac_2d1 (1).png 91E_gefs_latest.png rbtop-animated (6).gif

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kibishi0515|2016-10-23 15:26 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z升格20E
IMG_20161023_162233.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-10-23 20:30 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC初報巔峰上望颶風下限。
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230846
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep
convection associated with the low pressure area located south of
Mexico has become much better organized overnight.  A fortuitous
0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in
banding and was also very helpful in determining the center
location.  Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass
which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well
defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical
depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  The
initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.

The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or
less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for
steady strengthening.  Despite these seemingly favorable
conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less
strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a
peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days.  Given the
expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above
the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the
SHIPS and LGEM.  Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken
the cyclone.

Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14.  A strong mid- to upper-
level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja
California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward
during the next several days.  By day 4, the cyclone is forecast
to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of
the ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall
scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the
cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.
The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus
and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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t02436|2016-10-24 07:28 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z命名Seymour
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232046
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The cyclone has become better organized during the last several
hours.  Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is
forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central
convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin are slightly higher.  In addition, an ASCAT pass around
1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range.  Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.

The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in
a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.
These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and
high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or
perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that
time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,
and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour
west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few
days.  After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-
layer low pressure moves eastward toward California.  This pattern
change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then
northward in 4 to 5 days.   The models have shifted considerably to
the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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劉瑞益@FB|2016-10-25 07:30 | 顯示全部樓層
稍早開了針眼,強度也升CAT2,不過現在好像進入眼強置換,置換後強度有機會到達MH
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242104 CCA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

CORRECTED 120H STATUS

Seymour is rapidly intensifying.  A pinhole eye has formed within a
small, nearly symmetric, central dense overcast (CDO) during the
last several hours.  In addition, a long curved band coils inward
toward the center with a dry slot between it and the CDO.  Dvorak
classifications are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT value is T4.7/82 kt.  A blend of these is used to raise
the initial intensity estimate to 80 kt.

Seymour has another 24 hours to strengthen under nearly ideal
environmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear,
warm waters, strong upper-level divergence, and a sufficiently moist
atmosphere.  By 36 to 48 hours,  an uptick in the southwesterly
vertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough
approaching Seymour from the northwest should induce a weakening
trend.  With the waters cooling substantially and the shear becoming
prohibitively high after that time, rapid weakening is likely.
Seymour is now forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96
hours, if not perhaps sooner, as depicted in global model guidance.
The new intensity forecast is generally above the the guidance
through 48 hours, closest to the FSU Superensemble and NOAA
Corrected Consensus HCCA model output, and just above the multi-
model consensus after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Seymour should maintain a
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed for
the next 36 to 48 hours as it nears the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge located to the south of Baja California.  The trough
upstream of Seymour should erode the ridge further in about 48 hours
and cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward while it
decelerates. The guidance has again shifted toward the left during
the next few days, and the official forecast is adjusted in that
direction but lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The
model guidance is now much slower after that time, around the time
Seymour decouples and becomes a remnant low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 15.3N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 15.6N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 16.7N 118.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 20.7N 122.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 22.3N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
204033W5_NL_sm.gif rgb-animated (1).gif


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-10-25 15:06 | 顯示全部樓層
2016EP20_OHCNFCST_201610250000.GIF

這OHC少的好可憐
目前還是在相對高的地方
看置換後的狀況了
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-10-25 21:05 | 顯示全部樓層


GFS看好西摩的發展 , Cat.3 有機會挑戰

底層大致置換完成 , 高層準備開眼
gfs_pres_wind_epac_6.png


20161025.1040.f15.85rgb.20E.SEYMOUR.95kts.974mb.15.5N.113.3W.060pc.jpg

2016EP20_4KMSRBDC_201610251230.jpg

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