0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 W
擾動編號日期：2016 年 11 月 05 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 11 月 07 日 16 時
93W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.9N.129E

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級為LOW

2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 347 WEST-NORTHWEST PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH BROAD
DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

而渦旋度呈現紅中帶白現象





中心附近風場也挺完整的

周子堯@FB

同一天，JTWC又把評級提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 129.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY
325 NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION.  A 060102Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DISPLAYS A MORE
DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINAL WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE (20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.