2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 161.0E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 160.5E, 910 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK
AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING UP ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE. A
PARTIAL 082312Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND VOID OF
DATA ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES WHERE CONVECTION IS ALSO ABSENT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A FILLING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST, BOTH CREATING NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 20 KNOTS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN IMPRESSIVE
CHARACTERISTICS OF CYCLOGENESIS, BUT THE LIMITED ASCAT DATA SUGGEST
SURFACE WINDS ARE HIGHER THAN THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ELUDE
TO. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MIXED DEVELOPMENT
INTO A COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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