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  中度颱風  
編號：1812 ( 15 W )
名稱：雲雀 ( Jongdari )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 07 月 20 日 01 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 07 月 24 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 07 月 25 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 08 月 03 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：日本 三重縣 伊勢市
　　　　　　　　　 福岡縣 豊前市
　　　　　　　中國 上海市 金山區

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：38 m/s ( 13 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：40 m/s ( 75 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA) ：40 m/s ( TY )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：95 kts ( Cat.2 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：960 百帕
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：50 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料
96W.INVEST.15kts-11.0N-149.0E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 180002Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
SEVERAL 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL AID FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS EXPRESS THAT 96W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, SKIRTING GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

評級提升到Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 146.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO APPEAR. A 210042Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
BEFORE HEADING NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

pcstar

升格15W 還是預報往沖繩方向前進
目前西太範圍內有11W~15W 5個系統

s6815711

【向左走？向右走？熱帶低壓１５Ｗ】
在關島西方海域也有一個熱帶性低氣壓１５Ｗ正在發展，
有許多朋友詢問他會怎麼走？會影響台灣嗎？
小編簡單說明，讓大家能夠有更多了解～
　
這是歐洲數值模式最新的預測，
每一條線代表模式中每一個小成員的結果，
以這張圖為例，線條相當發散，如天女散花，
表示小成員看法差異很大，
此時象徵路徑變化很大！
　
究竟是向左走？向右走？
還不知道！
　
因此，現在討論是否影響台灣還言之過早，
在還沒完全排除前都要多注意，
可能還要好幾天才會明朗！
　
資料來源：EC(2018-07-22 00Z)
責任編輯：陳柏宏

ben811018

依然發散...

傳奇@天氣人

ben811018 發表於 2018-7-23 09:24
依然發散...

高壓有增強的趨勢路徑有可能會偏西