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01W JMA:GW 遠洋低緯西行 於菲中群島滯留飄移

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-1-3 09:53 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號: 01 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 :2019 01 03 09
JTWC升格日期: 2019 01 05 02
升格熱低日期 :2019 01 19 14
撤編日期   :2019 01 23 09
登陸地點   :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB):15 m/s ( 7 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):20 kts ( - )
海平面最低氣壓1004 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
90W.INVEST.15kts-996mb-3.0N-175.0E

20190103.0120.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.996mb.3N.175E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

JTWC從未給到30kt,甚至已經把之前的TD路徑砍了。  發表於 2019-1-21 11:05

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參與人數 2水氣能量 +65 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖
甜心 + 50 贊一個!開帖獎勵

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簽到天數: 593 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-3 13:30 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 03Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
175.0E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021535Z SSMI 85GHZ PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LIGHT (05-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK, SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 90W_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-3 14:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級提升至Medium,目前GFS數值比較看好發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 175.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
SURROUNDED BY WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION. A 030422Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
WEAK, SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair (1).jpg gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_12.png 20190103.0600.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3N.175E.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 2083 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2019-1-4 13:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 甜心 於 2019-1-5 11:13 編輯

未來環境並不怎麼非常好長期發展不看好,發展屬於比較短期良好形態。目前大氣環境西太平洋海域洋面海溫仍然比較偏低,過130度後因為北方系統影響風切轉大水氣減少等問題會使它的強度發展被限縮所以暫時不看好長期發展。
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簽到天數: 593 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-1-4 14:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z發布TCFA,部分數值看好發展。
WTPN21 PGTW 040530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 1.4N 175.0E TO 6.0N 170.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 2.5N 174.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
177.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. A 040409Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS POORLY ORGANIZED TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 032209Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-
72 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR GFS WHICH SHOWS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050530Z.//
NNNN
wp9019.gif 20190104.0550.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.2.5N.174.4E.100pc.jpg 90W_gefs_latest (1).png

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簽到天數: 988 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2019-1-4 18:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 09Z分析已達T1.5,周圍現有低風切,中心對流報發。
GFS預估有機會在24hr內成颱,並預測巔峰達中颱以上規模。
TPPN10 PGTW 040923

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 04/0900Z

C. 4.44N

D. 174.05E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh6-222.gif
vis_lalo-animated-90W-2.gif



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-1-5 04:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-1-5 04:53 編輯

JTWC於0418Z升格為TD01W
WTPN32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040521ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 4.8N 174.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 174.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 5.3N 173.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 6.0N 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 6.5N 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 7.1N 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 8.8N 167.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 10.3N 161.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 11.6N 154.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 174.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 36W (PABUK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040530).//
NNNN

26DE9DF8-9534-4CFE-8351-3CD8728929EB.gif
34B3E111-BE5D-4FC0-A7FB-47700EC77FBA.png
B8B32171-BFF9-4DB6-B69E-B8F2E376F4B0.png
E08B1AFF-D845-4E87-844C-B0CE146BCAE8.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-1-6 23:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於0615Z發出Final Warning。後續會逐漸消散抑或再重新發展,仍有待繼續觀察。
WTPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 5.6N 173.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 150 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.6N 173.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 5.8N 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 6.2N 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 5.7N 173.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION WITHOUT A DISCERNIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 061009Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND A BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK FIX THAT IS TOO WEAK
TO ASSIGN AN INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE
36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT WITH HWRF SHOWING NO INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE COAMPS-GFS AND
COAMPS-NAVGEM SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

9B49B2E8-3420-40C8-9BCD-5B1F805D360B.gif 2A11DD31-95AD-4878-97A3-61019B7C7BC7.gif AFB976CB-4D97-40DB-B09E-391E29E62E85.gif

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