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15P.Oma 路徑迂迴 再次轉向北上

簽到天數: 934 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-1-31 19:57 | 顯示全部樓層
  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:15 P ( 09 F14 U )
名稱:Oma

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 01 31 19
升格熱低日期:2019 02 11 15
JTWC升格日期:2019 02 12 08
命名日期  :2019 02 12 17
       2019 02 20 08 - BoM接續發報
撤編日期  :2019 02 00 00
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):65 kt
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):50 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):75 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓966 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
96PINVEST.15kts-998mb-16.6S-138.5E

20190131.1110.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.96PINVEST.15kts-998mb-166S-1385E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

哈哈,我也常這樣XD......  發表於 2019-2-3 20:28
怎麼急著去看感冒,一個閃神又跟擾動剛好錯過...  發表於 2019-1-31 22:04

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 386 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-2-8 10:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於08/02Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENLTY
SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER
HAND, VGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.



514C841B-65A2-41F8-953D-7F8E29E6704A.jpeg
A1B374AB-7F6D-4360-AEC7-528DF4793D65.jpeg
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簽到天數: 566 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 15:30 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 預計2天後會進入FMS責任區發展。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 10 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 13 February 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Sunday, a tropical low was located along the monsoon trough over the central Coral Sea. The tropical low is forecast to move east out of the Eastern Region over the next day or two, resulting in a very low chance of tropical cyclone development.

There are no other significant tropical lows and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
96P_gefs_latest.png 20190210.0650.himawari-8.ir.96P.INVEST.20kts.997mb.18.2S.156.2E.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 2099 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-2-11 10:53 | 顯示全部樓層
系統朝著萬那杜而去,萬那杜氣象部發出第一報,預測兩天後才會命名。
Information Number 1 on Tropical Low  issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 1:07pm VUT Monday 11 February 2019.

At 11:00am, a Tropical Low (1000 hPa) was located near 17.1S 160.1E. The
Tropical Low is positioned at the top left corner of square letter A,number 7
(A,7) of the Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map. This is about 740 KM
west southwest of Santo. In the past 6 hours, the system was moving east at
18 KM/HR. The potential for the Tropical Low to intensify further and move
towards Vanuatu in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

Expected sustained winds close to the center are estimated at 50KM/HR with gusts
up to 80KM/HR. The position of the system in the next 6 hours is expected to be
at 16.8S, 161.3E.

Strong winds of 45 to 55 KM/HR are expected within 330 Kilometers (178 Nautical
miles) within the NE Quadrant.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                     Position                 Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 11 Feb)           16.8S, 161.3E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 11 Feb)          16.5S, 162.2E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 12 Feb)           16.3S, 163.2E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 12 Feb)          16.1S, 163.8E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 12 Feb)          15.8S, 164.7E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 13 Feb)          15.7S, 165.3E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (11pm, 13 Feb)          15.8S, 166.1E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (11am, 14 Feb)          16.1S, 166.9E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfalls with flash flooding are expected over low lying areas including
coastal areas and areas close to the river banks about northern and parts of the
central Vanuatu today and tonight. Seas will become rough to very rough with
moderate to heavy swells over northern and central waters. A Severe Weather
Warning for heavy rainfalls and flash flooding is current for northern and central
islands. A Marine Strong Wind Warning is also current for northern and central
waters.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring the
system and will issue the next information at 12:00am tonight or earlier if the
situation changes. People are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu for any update
information on this system.

This information bulletin is also available on VMGD's website: www.vmgd.gov.vu.

IDV60001.gif

20190211.0215.goes-17.ircolor.96P.INVEST.25kts.997mb.17.4S.159E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-11 15:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 05Z評級提升至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 156.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY
837 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 102259Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT WELL
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 102301Z ASCAT PASS TO THE WEST
DEMONSTRATES HIGHER, 30 KT STRAIGHTLINE WINDS TO THE NORTH AS PART
OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20190211.0630.himawari-8.vis.96P.INVEST.25kts.994mb.15.8S.160.3E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-2-11 16:25 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS於11/0737Z編號熱帶低壓第9號(TD09F)。
GALE WARNING 041 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 110737 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 160.5E AT 110600UTC.
POSITION POOR. TD09F MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

IN THE AREA EAST OF 160E, EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 200
NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 038.

SHGMSCOL.JPG vis_lalo-animated.gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-11 20:58 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 天氣圖有2個09F~ 3PM2019.02.11 18.35.14.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-12 07:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z發布TCFA,趨向萬那杜群島。
WTPS21 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 163.1E TO 16.8S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 164.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF  
UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122100Z.//
NNNN
abpwsair (5).jpg 20190211.1630.himawari-8.ir.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.3S.178E.100pc.jpg 96P_112100sair.jpg

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