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13S.Gelena 強度曾達強烈熱帶氣旋

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2019-2-1 07:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-16 18:36 編輯

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:09-20182019 ( 13 S )
名稱:Gelena

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 02 01 05
JTWC升格日期:2019 02 06 08
命名日期  :2019 02 06 14
撤編日期  :2019 02 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ):110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):120 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓:942 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
97S INVEST 190131 1800 8.3S 57.4E 15 0

79_78787_1ac19876ed3c92a.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 00:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 11Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2S 57.8E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040558Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING THOUGH STILL WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL
POCKET OF CENTRALLY LOCATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN
THIS REGION OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN FORMATION TIMING
BETWEEN 060000Z (ECMWF) AND 080600Z (GFS) AND THE UKMO SHOWING NO
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (5).jpg 20190204.1500.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.97SINVEST.15kts-1006mb-121S-576E.100pc.jpg

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jrchang5|2019-2-5 15:04 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-5 15:06 編輯

MFR於02050600Z編號熱帶擾動第9號;另JTWC亦於02050630Z提升評級為Medium。

MFR:
Bulletin du 05 février à 10H34 locales Réunion:
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20182019.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 45 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 65 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 1002 hPa.
Position le 05 février à 10 heures locales Réunion: 12.4 Sud / 55.1 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 945 km au secteur: NORD
Distance de Mayotte: 1080 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: OUEST-SUD-OUEST, à 15 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le Bulletin d'Activité Cyclonique (voir lien ci-dessous)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

SWI_20182019.png


JTWC:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 473
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20190205.0600.msg-4.ir.97S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.9S.54.7E.100pc.jpg



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jrchang5|2019-2-5 23:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-6 04:26 編輯

JTWC於14Z發布TCFA。
WTXS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S 54.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 54.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
12.7S 54.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 54.2E, APPROXIMATELY 499
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050105Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT  
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
NNNN

4EDFFF44-E147-4CBA-9041-9D9D8D976AF8.jpeg
39F63580-4286-4038-AC6F-8A00A1726EB1.gif

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +20 收起 理由
t02436 + 20

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jrchang5|2019-2-6 04:25 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR判定02051800Z升格為熱帶低壓。巔峰強度暫時上望95kts。
WTIO31 FMEE 051859
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/9/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 9
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.7 S / 54.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 90
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
72H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

SWI_20182019 (1).png 20190205.1900.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.97SINVEST.30kts-1003mb-128S-544E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-6 09:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z率先升格熱帶氣旋13S。
SH, 13, 2019020600,   , BEST,   0, 124S,  537E,  35, 1003, TS
20190206.0030.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.13STHIRTEEN.35kts-1003mb-124S-537E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-6 15:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z首報,上望80kts。
WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HABROR HI//051352ZFEB19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 13.1S 53.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 17.5S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 21.2S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 24.8S 72.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052202Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
BASED ON A FMEE FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (36 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN TO TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
PUSH TC 13S ONTO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36,
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BY TAU 48, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS EXCEPT NAVGEM
SUPPORTING THE TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING SOUTH WITHIN 24 HOURS
AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD. NAVGEM INDICATES A BROAD TURN TO THE
EAST THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
051400).//
NNNN
sh1319.gif 13S_060000sair.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-6 15:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-2-6 15:27 編輯

MFR 命名"GELENA",逐漸增強,上望90KT。
WTIO31 FMEE 060712
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/9/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GELENA)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 53.4 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/02/2019 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 07/02/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 07/02/2019 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 08/02/2019 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
60H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
72H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN ENROULEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION A LA FAVEUR D'UNE BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ENVIRONNEMENTAL. LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE EN
BANDE INCURVEE DONNE UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK A 40KT, CE QUI EST EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES DE VENT DIFFUSOMETRIQUES DE LA PASSE ASCAT DE
0547Z. AINSI, LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A PROCEDE AU
BAPTEME DU SYSTEME A 03Z. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMI DE 2332Z ET SSMIS
DE 0127Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE DE BASSES COUCHES EN COURS DE
CONSOLIDATION AUTOUR D'UN COEUR RELATIVEMENT COMPACT.
ACTUELLEMENT, GELENA SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
NORD-NORD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE PETITE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD SUR MADAGASCAR. CE SOIR, AVEC
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PRECITEE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REMONTER DANS LES MOYENS NIVEAUX
ET UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO SITUE AU SUD DES
MASCAREIGNES DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT PRENDRE LA MAIN, ET CE JUSQU'A LA
FIN DE PERIODE. AINSI, APRES AVOIR POSSIBLEMENT DECRIT UNE BOUCLE DANS
LES HEURES A VENIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER GRADUELLEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, CANALISE ENTRE LE TALWEG ET LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD-EST. AINSI, LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE PRESENTE PEU DE DISPERSION. LA PRINCIPALE INCERTITUDE SE SITUE
SUR LA POSITION DU SYSTEME LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
LE SYSTEME EST DESORMAIS DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE A SON
DEVELOPPEMENT, QUI VA DEVENIR TRES FAVORABLE A TOUT POINT DE VUE. UN
EPISODE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE APPARAIT PROBABLE D'ICI VENDREDI SOIR.
ENSUITE, AVEC L'ETABLISSEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN
ALTITUDE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PLAFONNER AVANT LE DEBUT D'UNE LENTE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SAMEDI.
CEPENDANT, LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE
DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS,
CE QUI REND LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT UN PEU PLUS
INCERTAIN.
LES HABITANTS DE L'ILE RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION
L'EVOLUTION DE GELENA, UN IMPACT DIRECT ETANT PREVU SAMEDI EN COURS DE
JOURNEE, DEUX JOURS APRES LA SITUATION FUNANI.
SWI_20182019.png 79_105061_13913e73cb2b1b2.jpg 20190206.0127.f18.91pct91h91v.13S.INVEST.35kts.1003mb.12.4S.53.7E.065pc.jpg 20190206.0600.msg1.x.vis1km_high.13STHIRTEEN.40kts-993mb-121S-534E.100pc.jpg

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