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08F(92P)

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2019-2-10 10:05 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :92 P
擾動編號日期:2018 02 10 09
撤編日期  :2019 02 15 00
92P.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-13.5S-178.7W

20190210.0130.himawari-8.vis.92P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.13.5S.178.7W.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 516 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號熱帶擾動08F。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.5S 179.7W AT
092100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SUPPOSED LLCC IN
LAST 06 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERSTE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO THE 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
SHGMSCOL.JPG

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 15:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z評級LOW
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8S 178.7W, APPROXIMATELY 286 NM NORTHEAST OF NAVI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100414Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 92P LIES IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-
30C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE CORAL SEA. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE TO
THE WEST AFTERWARDS DUE TO CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH INVEST 96P WHICH
WILL BE TO ITS NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (3).jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 21:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z評級提升至Medium。
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 178.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S 178.4W, APPROXIMATELY 286
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NAVI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100938Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 92P LIES IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND DEVELOPS, WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE TO
THE WEST AFTERWARDS DUE TO CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH INVEST 96P WHICH
WILL BE TO ITS NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair (4).jpg 20190210.1220.hm8.ir.BD.92PINVEST.25kts-998mb.jpg rgb-animated (4).gif 92P_gefs_latest.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 22:22 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 強度升熱帶低壓。
GALE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 101307 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.7S 177.4W AT 101200UTC.
POSITION POOR.
TD08F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD08F CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030.
SHGMSCOL (2).JPG


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jrchang5|2019-2-13 10:54 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-13 11:56 編輯

JTWC於13/01Z降評為Low。
全球模式認為92P未來可能被併入至15P Oma的環流中,已不太看好未來的發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DIMINISHING CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN
AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) IN THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20190213.0152.goes15.x.vis1km_high.92PINVEST.25kts-998mb-244S-1781E.99pc.jpg 92P_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.92P.2019.2019021212.gif

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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-14 07:51 | 顯示全部樓層
與93P一同在JTWC1317Z一報中遭撤消評級
ABPW10 PGTW 131700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131700Z-140600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 177.3W, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair.jpg

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