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10F(93P)

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2019-2-10 14:52 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :93 P
擾動編號日期:2019 02 10 14
撤編日期  :2019 02 15 00
93P.INVEST.15kts-14.6S-169.7E

20190210.0550.himawari8.x.vis2km.93PINVEST.15kts-146S-1697E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-12 01:00 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號熱帶擾動10F。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.5S
177.8E AT 111500UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT INITIALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
20190211.1630.himawari-8.ir.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.3S.178E.100pc.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2019-2-12 07:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z評級LOW。
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.6S 179.9E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111723Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED,
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. 93P IS LOCATED IN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND WEAK DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS IN A
WEST-EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM . MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (5).jpg


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jrchang5|2019-2-12 10:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-12 10:22 編輯

FMS判定12/00Z升格為熱帶低壓。
GALE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 120047 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 179.5W AT 120000UTC.

POSITION FAIR. TD10F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD10F CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S
179.5W AT 120000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 17
KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT INITIALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
20190212.0150.himawari-8.vis.93P.INVEST.25kts.998mb.12.9S.178.8W.100pc.jpg 93P_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.93P.2019.2019021112.gif

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jrchang5|2019-2-13 11:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-2-13 11:46 編輯

FMS判定13/00Z仍為熱帶低壓,在斐濟東方海面逐漸南下。
全球模式認為93P將跟隨在92P之後,亦將被併入至15P Oma的環流中。未來的情況仍有待繼續觀察。
GALE WARNING 065 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 130112 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.2S 177.9W AT 130000UTC.
POSITION POOR. TD10F MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD10F CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 063.

vis_lalo-animated (1).gif 93P_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.93P.2019.2019021212.gif





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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-14 07:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-14 07:44 編輯

與92P同時,在1317Z遭JTWC取消評級
ABPW10 PGTW 131700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131700Z-140600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 177.3W, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair.jpg


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