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TD05(90W) JMA:TD 對流消散

簽到天數: 987 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-5-1 17:50 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :TD 05 ( 90 W )
擾動編號日期:2019 05 01 17
升格熱低日期:2019 05 07 08
CWB編號日期: 2019 05 07 14
撤編日期  :2019 05 09 00
90W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.3.6N.139.2E

20190501.0910.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.90WINVEST.15kts-1007mb-36N-1392E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-5-1 23:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1N
138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WIDE SWATH OF FLARING,
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST.
RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLIES WITH
MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATIONS SPINNING UP DUE TO THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY. A 011211Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE
FRAGMENTED BANDING AND AN ILL-DEFINED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A NORTHWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

90W_gefs_latest.png

20190501.1520.himawari-8.ircolor.90W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.4.1N.138.3E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-5-2 10:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 02/01Z提升評級至Medium,但目前數值預報大多不看好未來的發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1N 138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 490
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021744Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BELOW FLARING, VERTICALLY
STACKED CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH ADEQUATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHERS SHOW ONLY A
CIRCULATION ON A MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND NO
DEVELOPMENT, WITH NAVGEM A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AND CALLING FOR AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DESPITE POOR MODEL
CONSENSUS, 90W IS UPGRADED BASED ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM
AND AN ACTIVE, IN-PHASE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION SIGNATURE.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20190502.0200.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.6.2N.140.7E.100pc.jpg 90W_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.90W.2019.2019050112.gif


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-5-3 18:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 03/06Z降評為Low。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.1N 138.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 19
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY,
ALONG WITH A 030028Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUGGESTS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A 021217Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20190503.0950.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.7.4N.136.5E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-5-7 12:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 稍早升格熱帶低壓。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.
19050709.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-5-7 16:42 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB 06Z升格TD05,並開始發報。
2019年05月07日14時

中心位置在北緯 8.00 度,東經 137.50 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 11 公里
預測 05月08日02時
中心位置在北緯 8.30 度,東經 136.30 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北西 時速 8 公里
預測 05月08日14時
中心位置在北緯 8.50 度,東經 135.50 度
中心氣壓1005百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 170 公里

Download_PTA_201905070600_zhtw.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2019-5-8 10:24 | 顯示全部樓層
擷取.PNG

吃不到西南季風水氣~
頗虛弱的...要發展的難度很高阿~~
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-5-8 15:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC已於08/06Z取消評級。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 136.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
20190508.0620.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.9.3N.136E.100pc.jpg


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