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91W

簽到天數: 1018 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-5-5 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :91 W
擾動編號日期:2019 05 05 08
撤編日期  :2019 05 06 14
91W INVEST 190505 0000 3.0N 160.7E WPAC 15 1010

20190505.0050.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.91WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-30N-1607E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1018 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-5-5 14:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-5-5 14:51 編輯

JTWC0600Z一報評級91W為Low,GFS主觀模式預測及部分系集成員看好此系統未來的發展
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


79_93664_d95c5012894a0b6.jpg 91W_tracks_latest.png

79_104649_a78eda448263f69.png 79_104649_81174aa116c2b6d.png
91W_gefs_latest.png




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