1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived tropical or subtropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form by Monday several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday
while moving northward or northeastward. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for further development by
Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT
this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure
has developed within a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
showers several hundred miles to the southwest of Bermuda. A low
pressure system is expected to form within this area of disturbed
weather later today, and possibly develop into a short-lived
subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while moving
northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the
system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 AM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
995
NOUS42 KNHC 191730
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 19 MAY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z MAY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-001 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SW OF BERMUDA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 20/2030Z
B. AFXXX 0101A CYCLONE
C. 20/1600Z (TAKEOFF TIME CORRECTED)
D. 28.0N 68.0W
E. 20/2000Z TO 20/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION AT 21/1730Z
NEAR 30.5N 67.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WTNT21 KNGU 201500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.6N 68.7W TO 31.8N 68.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 201200Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION HAS YET FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE, LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA,
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LATER TODAY,
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.//
NHC展望则提升至70%/70%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization. Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight. Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019
Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the area of low pressure
that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring to the
southwest of Bermuda has developed into a subtropical storm.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have recently exited the cyclone and
found that the system has developed a well-defined center and has a
minimum pressure of about 1006 mb. The maximum adjusted flight-level
and surface SFMR winds support an intensity of about 35 kt. The
cyclone is considered subtropical at this time because it is
interacting with an upper-level low pressure system to its west,
has a relatively large radius of maximum wind, and its overall
appearance in satellite images.
Based on satellite and aircraft fixes today, the initial motion of
Andrea is estimated to be northward at 12 kt as it has been moving
in the flow between a subtropical ridge to its east and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west. The models show Andrea slowing down
and gradually turning to the northeast on Tuesday and eastward by
Tuesday night as it moves on the northern periphery of the ridge.
Andrea could strengthen slightly through early Tuesday while it
remains in a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after
that time, gradual weakening should commence due to less favorable
conditions, and all of the reliable models show Andrea opening into
a trough and becoming absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. The
NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 68.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
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