老農民版夜神月

  四級颶風  
編號：02 E
名稱：Barbara

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 06 月 29 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 06 月 30 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 09 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：135 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：933 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94E INVEST 190628 0600 12.0N 105.0W EPAC 15 1007

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward well away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC:70%/90%

1. An elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

JTWC亦在29/02Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 290200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 102.6W TO 9.6N 110.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 102.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 101.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 102.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1682
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS)
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300200Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC30/15Z升格為TS.命名Barbara,巔峰強度上望90KT

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 301442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022019
1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 110.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

JTWC亦於隨後的30/1600Z開始發報

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJUN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBRA) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 109.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 109.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 11.1N 112.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 11.6N 115.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 12.0N 118.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 12.4N 121.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 13.5N 125.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 15.0N 128.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.0N 131.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 110.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 02E (BARBRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1402 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 290200).//
NNNN

jrchang5

NHC、JTWC先後於01/21Z、22Z判定升格為一級颶風。

ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022019
2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 140SE 120SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 118.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 120.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 125.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI


NNNN

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA) WARNING NR 006   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 117.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 117.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 12.0N 120.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 12.6N 122.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 13.3N 125.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 14.0N 126.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 16.0N 129.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 17.5N 133.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 18.5N 138.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 118.7W.
HURRICANE 02E (BARBARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1279 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

強度升"二級颶風"，巔峰上望120kts，穩定西行5天後將進入中太。

694
WTPZ42 KNHC 020234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Passive microwave imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that the
inner-core convection of Barbara has continued to consolidate and a
ragged low- to mid-level eye has formed.  However, a pronounced dry
intrusion has periodically worked its way into the center of the
convective cloud mass, resulting in brief erosions of the eyewall.
Despite the dry air, bursts of deep convection have been developing
near the center and the most recent hi-resolution GOES-17 visible
satellite images suggest that a more robust eyewall is possibly
developing.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON values are T4.5/77
kt and 80 kt, respectively.  Given the occasional appearance of a
ragged cloud-filled eye in visible satellite imagery, the initial
intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory, meaning
that Barbara has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours.

Barbara's initial motion is 280/13 kt.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast rationale.  Barbara should
turn toward the west-northwest shortly, and that general motion is
forecast to continue for the next 36-48 hours.  After that time, a
passing shortwave trough is expected to weaken the ridge to the
north of the hurricane, allowing Barbara to move more poleward. In
the 96-120 hour period, however, the ridge is forecast to build back
in, forcing Barbara back toward the west.  The new NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.

The combination of low vertical wind shear, an expanding upper-level
outflow regime, a moist mid-level environment, and SSTs greater than
28 deg C is expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours,
allowing Barbara to continue to rapidly strengthen during that time.
By 48 hours, however, steady weakening is expected to begin due to a
probable eyewall replacement cycle, the beginning of cold upwelling,
and increasing southwesterly wind shear.  On days 4 and 5, more
rapid weakening is forecast due to Barbara moving over sub-26 deg C
water temperatures and into vertical wind shear conditions of more
than 20 kt.  The new official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and is a little above the consensus guidance
throughout the entire forecast period, closer to the Decay-SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 11.7N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 12.9N 124.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 13.6N 125.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 14.4N 127.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 16.4N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 18.0N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 18.7N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

霧峰追風者

風眼開啟，12Z強度直升四級颶風。

t02436

15Z評價115節，巔峰上望130。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021439
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
500 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data reveal that the
structure of Barbara has improved significantly. The hurricane has
developed an eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and
both features have been present during the past several hours.
This improvement in structure has been accompanied by a substantial
intensification, and based on both objective and subjective numbers
of 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity has been adjusted
upward to 115 kt. This is a marked increase of 55 kt since yesterday
at this time. A prevailing warm ocean and low shear could fuel
additional intensification during the next 12 hours or so. However,
the hurricane is forecast to encounter cooler waters and strong
shear primarily beyond 3 days resulting in weakening which could
be much faster by the end of the forecast period.  By the time
Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical
storm or even a remnant low.

Barbara has been moving steadily toward the west and west-northwest
or 290 degrees ar 12 kt. The hurricane is moving south of a
deep-layer ridge of high pressure extending from the west coast of
the United States westward across the Pacific. Barbara should move
a little more to the northwest around the ridge in about 2 or 3
days, but as soon as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow, it
will likely move to the west steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is basically
on top of the multi-model consensus.

NOTE:  Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W.  Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 12.5N 122.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 12.9N 123.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 13.7N 125.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 14.6N 127.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 17.8N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 19.0N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

霧峰追風者

00Z強度來到四級颶風上限(135kts)。