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02L.Barry 北大西洋風季首個颶風 巔峰登陸路州

簽到天數: 586 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-7-8 21:20 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級颶風  
編號:02 L
名稱:Barry

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 07 08 20
命名日期  :2019 07 11 23
撤編日期  :2019 07 00 00
登陸地點  :美國 路易斯安那州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :65 kt
海平面最低氣壓 :993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92L.INVEST.15kts-1011mb-33.1N-83.7W

20190708.1250.goes-16.ir.92L.INVEST.15kts.1011mb.33.1N.83.7W.100pc.jpg

  NHC:10%  
1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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簽到天數: 586 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-7-9 18:25 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至40%。
1. A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is
producing disorganized showers.  This disturbance is expected to
move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Once the disturbance is over water,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico.  Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week.  For more information about the rainfall threat, please
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from
the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png 20190709.0950.goes-16.ircolor.92L.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.32.1N.83.3W.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 586 天

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霧峰追風者|2019-7-10 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 展望提升至90%,進入墨灣。
1. A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.  For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png

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簽到天數: 363 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

王子又|2019-7-10 16:45 | 顯示全部樓層
92L發布TCFA ,預估南下增強,末期迴轉西北
66465434_2342552745798007_201953343692603392_n.jpg esrl.eps.ncep.hit.92L.2019.168.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.92L.2019.168.png

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簽到天數: 695 天

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老農民版夜神月|2019-7-10 23:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-7-10 23:15 編輯

10/12ZNHC判定升格02L,10/15Z開始發報,巔峰上望75KT
02L TWO 190710 1200 28.7N 86.1W ATL 25 1011
000
WTNT22 KNHC 101435
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

143913_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20190710.1200.goes15.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-287N-861W.100pc.jpg
20190710.1430.goes-16.ir.92L.INVEST.25kts.1011mb.28.7N.86.1W.100pc.jpg 20190710.1254.f17.composite.92L.INVEST.25kts.1011mb.28.7N.86.1W.085pc.jpg



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t02436|2019-7-12 00:11 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z命名Barry,上望C1,三天後登陸。
000
WTNT42 KNHC 111453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle.  The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center.  In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4.  Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h.  This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward.  However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance.  The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast.  The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east.  It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast.  Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall.  Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend.  The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 27.8N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 27.8N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 28.1N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 28.6N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 29.4N  91.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 32.0N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/1200Z 37.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

145531_5day_cone_with_line.png

20190711.1242.f17.91pct91h91v.02L.TWO.30kts.1005mb.27.7N.88.5W.095pc.jpg

GOES16_abi_conus_20190711_160132_band02.jpg

GOES160120191923pd7x1.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-7-13 21:43 | 顯示全部樓層
飛機實測進行中,即將登陸路易斯安那州。
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

115242_5day_cone_with_line.png

recon_AF304-1102A-BARRY_timeseries.png

recon_AF304-1102A-BARRY.png

另外,12Z速報已調升強度到65節。
02L BARRY 190713 1200 29.3N 91.9W ATL 65 993

GOES13362019194gusbA5.jpg

GOES1336201919401Enuh.jpg
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t02436|2019-7-13 23:31 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z正報升格颶風。
000
WTNT42 KNHC 131455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Barry Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Between 11-12Z, the National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 62 kt and a peak
gust of 74 kt at an elevation of about 10 m.  Doppler radar winds
from the Slidell WSR-88D suggested surface winds of 60-65 kt as
well.  In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported SFMR wind estimates of 60-63 kt near Eugene Island, and
850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt. Based on these data and the
possibility that the strongest winds were not sampled, it is
estimated that Barry became a hurricane around 11-12Z despite its
less than classical appearance in satellite imagery.  It should be
noted that hurricane-force winds are limited to a small area east of
the center, and that the upgrade to a hurricane means little in
terms of the overall impacts from Barry.

Barry is now moving northwestward with an initial motion of 310/5.
The center should cross the Louisiana coast during the next few
hours, then move slowly toward the north-northwest and north through
Louisiana for the next 36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness
in the mid-level ridge to the north.  This general motion should
continue until the system dissipates.  The new NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one based on the initial
position and a slight westward shift in the track guidance.

Barry should quickly weaken below hurricane strength as it moves
onshore, and subsequently it is forecast to weaken below tropical
storm strength between 24-36 h and degenerate into a trough by 96 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is ongoing along the
coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake
Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely later today and tonight as Barry
moves inland, especially across portions of south-central and
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. The slow movement of Barry
will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from
Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north
across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Tennessee Valley.

3. Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and
spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 29.6N  92.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 30.4N  92.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
24H  14/1200Z 31.6N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  15/0000Z 33.0N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  15/1200Z 34.3N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
72H  16/1200Z 37.5N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

145608_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES15262019194WE8IJ9.jpg

GOES15262019194AukMGq.jpg
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