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03E.Cosme 直接命名 環境不佳 短暫發展

簽到天數: 736 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-7-4 13:19 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶風暴  
編號:03 E
名稱:Cosme

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 07 04 12
命名日期  :2019 07 06 23
撤編日期  :2019 07 09 22
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :45 kt
海平面最低氣壓 :1001 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95E INVEST 190704 0600 10.5N 102.5W EPAC 20 1008
20190704.0450.goes-16.ir.95E.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.10N.98W.100pc.jpg

  NHC:40%  

1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend.  This disturbance is expected to move
west-northwestward at about 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

two_pac_2d10704.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 736 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

老農民版夜神月|2019-7-5 13:18 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC系統形成機率已提升至60%/90%
1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. This system is showing signs of organization and a broad
surface low has developed. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development and a tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph, remaining well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d10705.png two_pac_5d0705.png

JTWC亦於05/0130Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 106.2W TO 13.5N 113.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 106.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 106.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LLC
WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH PERIPHERY. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE INVEST.
SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.
//
NNNN

ep9519.gif 95E_050130sair.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-7-6 23:07 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 15Z報評價45節,直接升格03E並命名Cosme。
初報認為已達顛峰,36小時後開始減弱。
720
WTPZ43 KNHC 061403
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032019
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019

The broad area of low pressure that we have been monitoring for
several days has finally consolidated into a tropical storm.
Satellite images show that a well-defined center is present on the
western side of an area of deep convection which has been
getting closer to the center.  The initial wind speed is set to 45
kt in agreement with the overnight scatterometer data,
which is
higher than what Dvorak-only estimates would suggest.

Shear near Cosme has been decreasing during the overnight hours,
with cirrus cloud motions suggesting that easterly flow is
overspreading the circulation.  However, it will take some time for
the large cyclone to overcome the very dry mid-level air near and
west of the core.  In addition, Cosme has only about 36 hours over
lukewarm SSTs before reaching cool waters. These factors suggest
little significant strengthening this weekend, and a gradual
weakening early next week due to sub-26C waters and higher shear.
Only the HWRF shows any significant increase in wind speed, with the
rest of the models holding Cosme's intensity flat or decreasing
during the next few days. The official intensity forecast goes with
the latter solution, not too far from the model consensus.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 290/12.  Cosme should
be steered to the west-northwest for the next day or so due to a
subtropical ridge over Mexico.  However all of the models show a
break in the ridge forming between 120-130W, which will likely
induce a motion more to the northwest by Monday.  There isn't a lot
of agreement, however, on exactly when that turns occurs, with the
GFS-based guidance and UKMET turning the system the system earlier
than the ECMWF and most of its ensemble.  I don't have a lot of
reason to favor either solution at this time, so the forecast will
stay close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE. Based
on SSTs and model-simulated satellite data, Cosme should become a
non-convective remnant low in about 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 15.6N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

140138_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES14502019187pdJuwn.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-7-7 00:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-7-7 00:57 編輯

今午掃出45KT的風場圖,但當時NHC仍認定系統性質為LO而未做出升格動作
EP, 95, 2019070606, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1140W, 45, 1005, LO
EP, 03, 2019070612, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1151W, 45, 1001, TS

1494d5628535e5dd6f24083a78c6a7efcf1b62a5.jpg 8f5135fae6cd7b8979189a66012442a7d8330eb1.jpg
8a56baa1cd11728b8cc22ac7c6fcc3cec2fd2c3a.png 7dc159ee3d6d55fbb37b8fc363224f4a21a4dd68.png


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