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04E 不看好發展

簽到天數: 586 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-7-12 06:25 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :04 E
擾動編號日期:2019 07 12 05
撤編日期  :2019 00 00 00

96E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-13.2N-103.3W

20190711.2131.goes15.x.vis1km_high.96EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-132N-1033W.97pc.jpg

  NHC:10%  
1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the surface
circulation of the disturbance is broad and poorly defined.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development during the next several days while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward well offshore the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 2183 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-7-13 11:49 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z升格04E,03Z報已不看好達到TS強度。
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 130234
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042019
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The depression looks less organized than a few hours ago, with the
apparent low-level center displaced a fair distance from the
mid-level circulation to the southwest.  In addition, deep
convection has decreased markedly during that time, although a new
burst is forming in the southwestern quadrant.  The initial wind
speed is kept 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates.

The cyclone probably only has the convective maximum period
overnight to become a tropical storm before a combination of strong
shear, cooling SSTs, and upper-level convergence start a steady
weakening.  In fact, the depression is forecast by all of the
dynamical guidance to lose deep convection near or just after 24
hours.  Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is lowered 5 kt from the
previous one, similar to the consensus, and the remnant low timing
is pushed up to 36h as well.

An uncertain motion is 300/11 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should gradually turn the depression westward
during the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward
speed.  Models have come into better agreement on the track of the
depression, not too far from the previous NHC track prediction, so
the new forecast is basically the same as the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 15.8N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 16.7N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 17.5N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 17.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  15/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

023428_5day_cone_with_line.png

20190713.0320.goes-16.ir.04E.FOUR.30kts.1006mb.15.5N.108W.100pc.jpg

GOES03302019194wIlfaR.jpg
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