周子堯@FB

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：01-20192020 ( 96 S )
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 21 日 07 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 26 日 00 時
96S INVEST 190720 2350 4.0S 74.0E EPAC 20

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/1800Z評級Low,主流數值目前認為這個南半球冬季擾動有略為發展的機會

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.2S
74.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH OVERHEAD CIRRUS OBSCURATION. A 211143Z MHS
MOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. 96S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (32 TO 33
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
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霧峰追風者

編號熱帶擾動第一號，南半球新風季首擾，有機會命名。

WTIO31 FMEE 231726
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/1/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 1
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/07/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5 S / 68.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 15 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 278 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/07/2019 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 24/07/2019 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 25/07/2019 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
48H: 25/07/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 26/07/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT
SUIVIE DEPUIS PLUSIEURS JOURS DANS LES BULLETINS AWIO21 FMEE, LA ZONE
PERTURBEE SE SITUANT AU SUD-OUEST DE DIEGO-GARCIA PRESENTE DES
BOUFFEES DE CONVECTION ASSEZ FLUCTUANTES AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES. LA CIRCULATION A DU MAL A S'ORGANISER A PROXIMITE DE LA
CONVECTION LA PLUS FORTE COMME LE MONTRENT LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES : CELLES-CI NE PERMETTENT PAS DE DEFINIR PRECISEMENT UN
CENTRE BIEN ETABLI POUR CETTE ZONE PERTURBEE. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT
EXPLOITABLE (0440UTC) PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 20/25KT
DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DE LA CIRCULATION ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE.
AVEC UNE CIRCULATION VERTICALE PEU ETENDUE, LA ZONE PERTURBEE 01 EST
SOUMISE A UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ASSEZ BAS QUI ORIENTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UN TALWEG PROCHE
EQUATORIAL. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE POSITIONNE TEMPORAIREMENT LE SYSTEME
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAIBLEMENT CISAILLE, LUI OFFRANT UNE COURTE
PERIODE D'INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18HEURES. PAR LA SUITE,
SOUS L'EFFET D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG CIRCULANT PLUS
AU SUD, LE SYSTEME VA SE COMBLER ET SUIVRE LE FLUX DIRECTUR DES ALIZES
EN DIRECTION DES MASCAREIGNES A ECHEANCE DE 2 A 3 JOURS.
CE SYSTEME NE NECESSITE PAS DE BULLETIN REGULIER. PROCHAIN BULLETIN
DEMAIN A 06UTC.

老農民版夜神月

下午06Z的第二報,卻也成了最後一報,MFR在報中已不再看好此系統能再有所發展

WTIO20 FMEE 240628
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/07/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/07/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 68.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS
30/35KT POSSIBLE FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/07/24 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
24H, VALID 2019/07/25 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=

對流逐漸減弱並解離,JTWC24/0900Z亦對96S撤評

ABIO10 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240900Z-241800ZJUL2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 69.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN 2.B.(1)//
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