霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：03 L
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 20 日 13 時
升格日期　　：2019 年 07 月 23 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 25 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：30 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1012 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94L.INVEST.25kts-1014mb-23.5N-70.2W


  NHC: 10%  

1. A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the
Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Some slight development is possible over the
next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC於22/21Z判定升格為Tropical Depression Three(TD 03E),並於同時開始發報,首報預測沿美國東南岸北上稍微增強後旋即轉化

000
WTNT23 KNHC 222030
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032019
2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  78.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  78.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  78.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.2N  79.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.7N  77.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  78.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

老農民版夜神月

03E的整體雲系結構,跟早上的風場.....
這樣子的系統直接升格成TD實在略嫌草率了些
不過話又說回來NHC升格的理由,大概就和上個月JMA升格聖帕相似吧
畢竟機構對於靠近自己領土的系統,終究還是難免有些私心