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97E 中心裸露

簽到天數: 757 天

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2019-8-19 02:31 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :97 E
擾動編號日期:2019 08 19 02
撤編日期  :2019 08 22 07
97E INVEST 190818 1800 11.9N 117.4W EPAC 20 1009
023655ccyxgo6gzg8236iz.jpg

NHC:30%
2. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_pac_2d0818.png two_pac_2d20818.png
two_pac_5d20818.png

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簽到天數: 593 天

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霧峰追風者|2019-8-19 09:17 | 顯示全部樓層
展望提升至40%。
2. A low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually improve, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-8-19 20:57 | 顯示全部樓層
展望提升至50%。
2. A well-defined low pressure system located more 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-8-20 02:38 | 顯示全部樓層
展望提升至60%。
2. A low pressure system located a little over 900 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
mid-week, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_pac_2d2 (1).png

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老農民版夜神月|2019-8-20 08:05 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC19/2330Z發布TCFA
WTPN22 PHNC 192330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 119.4W TO 16.5N 136.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191918Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 120.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED AT 14.0N
120.6W, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202330Z.
//
NNNN

ep97019.gif 97E_192200sair.jpg
goes17_ir_97E_201908192205.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-8-20 20:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-8-20 20:56 編輯

目前此系統LLCC的裸露仍然十分明顯,要升格除非風場掃描直接達標否則還得再等等
goes17_vis-swir_97E_201908201155.jpg goes17_ir_97E_201908201155.jpg
bd0820.gif swir0820.gif
97E_gefs_latest.png
TXPZ22 KNES 201228
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B.  20/1200Z

C.  16.0N

D.  121.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T1.0/1.5/W0.5/12HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER LOCATED OVER 1.25 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF A VERY SMALL COLD
OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES
WHILE MET IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

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老農民版夜神月|2019-8-21 02:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-8-21 02:03 編輯

NHC展望由原本的60%/80%下調為40%/60%
2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Conditions have become less conducive for development, however a
tropical depression could still form within the next couple of days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_pac_2d20820.png two_pac_5d20820.png
vis0820.gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-8-21 10:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-8-21 11:01 編輯

JTWC 取消TCFA,報文誤打97W。
WTPN22 PHNC 202330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) CANCELLATION
CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192321Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 192330)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 192330). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) IS LOCATED AT 14.0N 120.6W, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
WEST SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LLCC WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. DESPITE
LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, 97E CROSSED INTO AN AREA OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELCIUS) AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
WITH POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20-25 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, 97W IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SYSTEM IN SUBJECT LINE TO
INVEST 97E.
//
NNNN
NHC 環境轉差,展望再降低至20%。
2. Another low pressure system located more than 900 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited shower and thunderstorms activity. Conditions have
become less conducive for development and the chance of this system
becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing.  The system is forecast
to move little during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_pac_2d2.png
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