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08L.Gabrielle 逐漸北上

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2019-9-1 20:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-4 17:11 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :08 L
擾動編號日期:2019 09 01 20
撤編日期  :2019 09 00 00
91L INVEST 190901 1200 14.3N 23.8W ATL 25 NA

ed563af33a87e9500a9270511f385343faf2b4d8.jpg

  NHC:50%  
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves generally northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple
of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_2d1091.png two_atl_5d10901.png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-2 20:08 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至High,80%/90%
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_5d1902.png two_atl_2d1902.png


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霧峰追風者|2019-9-3 08:56 | 顯示全部樓層
展望維持80%。
1. An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Although this system is currently
producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-3 12:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-3 12:12 編輯

補充FWC-N於昨天晚上02/1300Z發布的TCFA及目前最新的各類雲圖
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT22 KNGU 021300
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 28.1W TO 16.1N 32.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 28.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED
SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION, AND ENVIORNMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 031300Z.//

224352hzllt994oja356zw.gif 20190903.0330.goes-16.ir.91L.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.16.2N.30.5W.100pc.jpg
20190903.0330.goes-16.irbd.91L.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.16.2N.30.5W.100pc.jpg 20190903.0330.goes-16.ircolor.91L.INVEST.25kts.1007mb.16.2N.30.5W.100pc.jpg
goes16_ir_91L_201909030345.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-9-3 14:05 | 顯示全部樓層
展望提升至90%。
1. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low
pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is becoming better defined.  Associated thunderstorm
activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and
a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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霧峰追風者|2019-9-4 07:24 | 顯示全部樓層
升格熱帶低壓08L。
048
WTNT43 KNHC 032040
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over
the eastern Atlantic has become better defined during day, with
rainbands forming on the eastern side of the circulation.  This
structure is good enough for a tropical depression, and the initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which agrees with earlier ASCAT passes
that showed 25-30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  A general northwestward
motion is anticipated during the next several days, faster by the
weekend, as the system is steered by a strengthening eastern
Atlantic ridge.  One source of uncertainty in the future track is
how much the cyclone is affected by a developing mid-level low
around 25N45W in a few days.  This feature could briefly induce a
north-northwestward motion on Friday, and later west-northwestward
on day 5 depending on exactly how close the new tropical cyclone
gets to the mid-level low.  For now it is best not to bite off on
any particular model solution, since the intensity and depth of the
cyclone isn't certain at this range.  Thus, the forecast is close
to the Atlantic model consensus TVCA, shaded a bit on the fast side
assuming the system keeps some vertical depth.

Although the depression is forecast to be in a low-shear environment
during the next couple of days, marginal water temperatures should
keep the strengthening rate modest.   The intensity forecast is
complicated beyond that point due to the system's interaction with
the mid-level low, drier air in the mid-levels, and increasing
waters temperatures.  This mixed bag of factors makes the forecast
rather murky, with any intensity changes at longer range having low
predictability at this point.  Therefore, the forecast is leveled
off at long range, similar to the NOAA corrected-consensus model
HCCA, but this uncertain forecast could require a great deal of
revision later tonight or tomorrow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 19.0N  32.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  04/0600Z 19.7N  33.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  04/1800Z 20.4N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  05/0600Z 21.4N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  05/1800Z 22.4N  35.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  06/1800Z 26.2N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  07/1800Z 30.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 34.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
204123_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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霧峰追風者|2019-9-4 10:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-9-4 10:07 編輯

NHC 00Z命名"Gabrielle"。
08L GABRIELLE 190904 0000 19.5N 32.4W ATL 35 1005
20190904.0130.goes-16.ircolor.08L.GABRIELLE.35kts.1005mb.19.5N.32.4W.100pc.jpg

點評

我剛剛看到那些資訊也以為升格TS了,但NHC03Z的正式報文剛剛出來,還是TD,沒有升格,看起來是內部人員搞了場烏龍  發表於 2019-9-4 10:45
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老農民版夜神月|2019-9-4 11:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-4 11:23 編輯

剛才有關於升格及命名的資料已經全部被改回去了,看來是美國方面搞了場烏龍..
08L EIGHT 190904 0000 18.9N 32.6W ATL 30 1006
000
WTNT43 KNHC 040240
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was
farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds
of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern
semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10
to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days.
Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it
is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50
kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to
move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some
increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in
time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the
cyclone's intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is
held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a
tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various
intensity consensus models.

The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is
expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a
subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An
increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the
cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its
east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The
official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one
through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position.
Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the
consensus aid TVCX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.1N  32.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  04/1200Z 19.7N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/0000Z 20.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  05/1200Z 21.6N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  06/0000Z 23.0N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  07/0000Z 27.1N  39.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  08/0000Z 31.7N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 35.4N  46.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

20190904.0250.goes-16.ir.08L.EIGHT.30kts.1006mb.18.9N.32.6W.100pc.jpg two_atl_0d01.png


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