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96W 即將登陸韓國

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-9-7 08:46 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料  
編號    :96 W
擾動編號日期:2019 09 07 08
撤編日期  :2019 09 00 00
96W.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-24.5N-124E

20190907.0010.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.24.5N.124E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 2479 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-9-7 10:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 25N 124E NORTH SLOWLY.

19090709.png

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玲玲產下嬰兒 誰要負責0_0  發表於 2019-9-7 11:26
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ericlin6925|2019-9-7 11:00 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
這擾動應該發展有限,不是每一個都能成為納莉。
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簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-7 15:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-9-7 15:11 編輯

JTWC 平級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.4N 123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 070136Z
MHS 89GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 96W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (<15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT THIS IS OFFSET BY A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-9-8 00:25 | 顯示全部樓層
23N 125E附近出現一個類風眼XD
CV1_3600_201909080010.png

rbtop-animated.gif

54.track.png

96W CWB.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-8 17:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC08/0600Z評級Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY
267 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 080454Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH WEAK BANDING
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 080115Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
未命名0908.png 96W_gefs0_latest.png
並於08/00Z時開始認定此系統為副熱帶低壓
WP, 96, 2019090712,   , BEST,   0, 261N, 1244E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  125,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
WP, 96, 2019090718,   , BEST,   0, 270N, 1250E,  20, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090800,   , BEST,   0, 279N, 1252E,  25, 1000, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1005,  110,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 96, 2019090806,   , BEST,   0, 291N, 1251E,  30,  996, SD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  160,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
f032034f78f0f736e2a0382e0555b319ebc4131c.jpg avn0908-lalo.gif

此外,JMA亦於06Z發布[W]
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 29.5N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
未命名0907.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2019-9-8 22:54 | 顯示全部樓層
明顯是30節的熱帶低壓。
LATEST.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-9-10 15:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC已於10/06Z取消評級。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 34.8N 123.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
20190910.0700.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.34.8N.123.9E.100pc.jpg



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