0908morakot

  超級氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 03 ( 04 A )
名稱 : Kyarr

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 17 日 13 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 10 月 24 日 15 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 10 月 26 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 11 月 03 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：無


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：135 kt ( VSCS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：135 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：915 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
  擾動編號資料  
97A.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.70E

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 68.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 181546Z
METOPA-A 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COUPLED WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) DEPICT A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC24/0300Z發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 72.0E TO 16.0N 66.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 70.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A 231659 ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THIS TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH A LARGE BAND OF 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF 30
KT WINDS 140 NM FROM THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDER FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KTS). HOWEVER, JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG VWS REACHING 25-30 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE INITIALLY SLOWLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER ALL MODELS THEN REVERSE THE TRACK BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 72 TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250300Z.//
NNNN

t02436

IMD下午編號ARB03，晚間已升深低壓，上望VSCS。

t02436

昨天00Z命名Kyarr，今天00Z已達VSCS，IMD上望ESCS，JTWC上望110節。

蜜露

氣旋強度達到了Cat.4
這張底層有機會強度上到Cat.5的可能性

Meow

極大概率即將升格超級氣旋風暴。

TCIN50 DEMS 270300
SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT 3D PIC OF 270300 UTC (.)
REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0oN TO 30.0oS AND LONG 40.0oE TO 125.0oE (.) SALIENT FEATURES:-
VORTEX (KYARR) OVER EC ARSEA & N/HOOD :-
VORTEX (KYARR) OVER EC ARSEA & N/HOOD NOW LAY CENTERED NEAR 17.1N/67.7E (.) INTENSITY T6.5/6.5 (.) EYE PATTERN (.) EYE TEMP +9.4 DEG CEL (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER EC ARSEA BET LAT 14.0N TO 19.05N AND LONG 66.0E TO 70.5E (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG C) (.)

Meow

升格超級氣旋風暴，2007年來北印度洋最強。