老農民版夜神月

  輕度颱風  ｜  特強氣旋風暴  
編號：1922 ｜BOB 04 ( 23 W )
名稱：麥德姆 ( Matmo )  ｜ Bulbul




  基本資料  
【南海階段】
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 25 日 19 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 10 月 28 日 14 時
CWB升格日期: 2019 年 10 月 29 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 10 月 30 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 10 月 30 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2019 年 10 月 31 日 14 時
【孟加拉灣階段】
IMD編號日期：2019 年 11 月 05 日 11 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 11 月 07 日 02 時
IMD命名日期：2019 年 11 月 07 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 11 月 12 日 07 時

登陸地點　　：越南 富安省
　　　　　　　印度 西孟加拉邦

  巔峰時期資料  
【南海階段】
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：25 m/s ( 50 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：992 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：100 公里
十級風半徑　　：---- 公里

【孟加拉灣階段】
印度氣象部 (IMD) ：80 KT ( VSCS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：85 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：971 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
98W INVEST 191025 0600 10.0N 138.3E WPAC 15 1010


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

GFS 預測將通過巴士海峽，有機會發佈海上警報。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 270106Z MHS METOP-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS NO INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. A 270033Z METOP-
C ASCAT PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS SIGNS OF A WEAK, ELONGATED LLC WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED 15 KNOT WIND BARBS. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
98W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 89
NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTA PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 280111Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS VERY LITTLE INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
AND MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JMA升TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 119E WEST SLOWLY.

老農民版夜神月

目前兩大數值均認為此系統在30/12Z左右登陸越南前,能有一定程度的發展,而具體發展程度如何,尚待持續追蹤

老農民版夜神月

JMA28/18Z發布GW

熱帯低気圧
令和元年10月29日03時50分 発表

<29日03時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 11度35分(11.6度)
東経 116度25分(116.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<29日15時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 12度20分(12.3度)
東経 114度50分(114.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<30日03時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
東経 113度00分(113.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

同時CWB亦升格TD28

第 28 號熱帶性低氣壓
》現況
2019年10月29日02時
      中心位置　北緯 11.50 度　東經 116.00 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1002 百帕
      近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒

》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 11 公里
     預測 10月29日14時
     中心在 北緯 11.80 度 東經 114.80 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 23 公里
     預測 10月30日02時
     中心在 北緯 12.30 度 東經 112.30 度
     中心氣壓   998 百帕
     近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

老農民版夜神月

JTWC則於28/2130Z發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 282130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 118.1E TO 12.5N 112.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 117.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2N 118.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A
281806Z ATMS IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE SAME AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVELS ON
EIR AND LOW RESOLUTION OF THE RECENT USABLE MICROWAVE IMAGES. A
281253Z ASCAT-C PASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION SHOWS 15 KNOTS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 18 TO 23
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECENT OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY FAVOR STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE-CYCLE DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND 25 KNOT WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292130Z.//
NNNN