老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：19 L
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 28 日 13 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 11 月 00 日 00 時

99L INVEST 191028 0600 41.2N 39.5W ATL 65 965

  NHC：10%  

1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located more than 400
miles west of the Azores is producing a broad area of gale-force
to hurricane-force winds.  The low could gradually acquire
subtropical characteristics over the next few days while the
system moves slowly southward to southeastward over warmer water.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by Friday when the low is forecast to move back over
colder water. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the NOAA National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70%/70%

1. Showers associated with a low pressure system located several
hundred miles west of the westernmost Azores continue to show signs
of organization. If the current organization of shower activity
persists, advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight. The system will likely
move over colder waters on Thursday and further development is
unlikely after that time.  The low is producing gale-force winds and
these winds are forecast to continue today, regardless of
development. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

t02436

21Z升格19L並命名Rebekah

000
WTNT44 KNHC 302039
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192019
500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019

Cloudiness and showers associated with a small low pressure system
embedded within a larger non-tropical low over the north-central
Atlantic have become better organized during the day. The cyclone
has a broken convective band that wraps about halfway around its
eastern semicircle, with a small area of central convection near its
center. The cloud tops within the convection are not particularly
cold and the system is co-located with a large upper-level low, so
it is initially designated as a subtropical cyclone. The intensity
is assessed as 40 kt based primarily on earlier ASCAT data. It is
worth mentioning that the system also has some characteristics of a
tropical cyclone, since the radius of maximum winds is not very
large and the system has some moderate central convection.

Much like Pablo just a few days ago, Rebekah is currently rotating
around a larger non-tropical low pressure system. The initial motion
estimate is 080/11 kt, but an east-northeastward motion is expected
later tonight. The track model spread is larger than normal and
confidence in the track forecast is low, though most of the models
generally show Rebekah turning back toward the east by early Friday,
followed by a turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates
later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rebekah is
forecast to approach the western-most Azores early Friday as a
post-tropical/extratropical cyclone.

The intensity guidance unanimously forecasts that Rebekah will
change little in strength during the next 24 h, though given the
small size of the cyclone, some short-term fluctuations are possible
tonight. Most of the dynamical models then forecast that Rebekah's
convection will decrease substantially by early Friday, likely due
to a combination of colder SSTs and unfavorable upper-level winds.
The cyclone is therefore forecast to become post-tropical around
that time, and gradual weakening is expected. Rebekah will likely
dissipate by the weekend, if not sooner.

Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or
subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information
can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute
for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 38.3N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 39.0N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 39.9N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 39.8N  31.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  01/1800Z 38.9N  26.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

老農民版夜神月

NHC09Z判定Rebekah已減弱為殘留低氣壓

961
WTNT44 KNHC 010832
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192019
500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a
remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection.  In
addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system
over the northeastern Atlantic.  Re-development of deep convection
appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to
weaken to a trough between 12-24 h.

The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion
is expected until the system dissipates.

This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.  Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular
products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and
Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at
https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 40.6N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  01/1800Z 40.2N  24.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven