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1925 風神 整合發展中

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-11-8 09:50 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料  
編號    :92 W
擾動編號日期:2019 11 08 09
撤編日期  :2019 11 00 00
92W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-9N-178E

20191108.0110.himawari-8.vis.92W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9N.178E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 815 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-10 13:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC10/0200Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 171.0E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL.
ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE LLC PERIPHERY AND MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A
092146Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FEATURES WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING HAMPERED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING
CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
goes17_truecolor_92W.gif goes17_ir_92W_201911100205.jpg
goes17_ir-dvorak_92W_201911100205.jpg



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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-10 22:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA12Z升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 169E WNW SLOWLY.
19111021.png 21411.jpg
21410.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-11-11 10:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 10/2130Z提升評級至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 168.3E, APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 101739Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
36 TO 60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20191111.0050.hm8.x.vis1km.92WINVEST.20kts-1007mb-132N-1680E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-11-11 10:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC復隨即於11/03Z發布TCFA。
WTPN21 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 167.9E TO 17.9N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 168.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 171.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY
272 NM NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC PERIPHERY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 102312Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
92W IS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120300Z.
NNNN
wp9219.gif abpwsair (1).jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-11 21:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA12Z發布GW
熱帯低気圧
令和元年11月11日22時30分 発表

<11日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マーシャル諸島
中心位置        北緯 14度05分(14.1度)
東経 165度25分(165.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 162度40分(162.7度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径        110km(60NM)

<12日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南鳥島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 16度00分(16.0度)
東経 159度30分(159.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)
a-0037.png 21512.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2019-11-11 22:26 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB升格TD31
第 31 號熱帶性低氣壓

》現況
2019年11月11日20時
      中心位置 北緯 14.00 度 東經 165.00 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1004 百帕
      近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 23 公里
     預測 11月12日08時
     中心在 北緯 14.70 度 東經 162.60 度
     中心氣壓   1002 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 30 公里
     預測 11月12日20時
     中心在 北緯 15.90 度 東經 159.50 度
     中心氣壓   998 百帕
     近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑80公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢
2019111112_PTA_0_download.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-12 00:30 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格26W,初報強度上望95節
WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1166
NM EAST OF WFO GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TD 26W
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL BANDING
AND DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 110946Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT WIND BARBS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0-1.5 (25
KNOTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TD 26W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATELY FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TD 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 72. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY HAMPERED BY
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.
AS A RESULT, TD 26W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MODEL SPREAD OF 120 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE AS A
RESULT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A NEWLY FORMED COL AS IT APPROACHES THE STR
AXIS AROUND TAU 96. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, LIMITING PEAK INTENISTY
TO 95 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
TRACK SPREAD OF 170 NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, RECURVE TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
wp2619.gif 26W_111500sair.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-26W-Long-78025546.jpg



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