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01P.Rita 曾增強達澳式C3 南半球風季首擾首旋

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2019-11-21 23:25 | 顯示全部樓層
  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:01 F ( 01 P )
名稱:Rita

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 11 21 22
JTWC升格日期:2019 11 24 00
命名日期  :2019 11 24 14
撤編日期  :2019 11 30 02
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS ):65 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓:983 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
90P INVEST 191121 1200 10.0S 170.0E SHEM 15 0

231324d5niljnf1281wwwn.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1052 天

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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-22 14:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC22/0600Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3S
163.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA
OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
QUADRANTS. A 220445Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair1122.jpg goes17_wv-mid_90P_201911220555.jpg
goes17_ir_90P_201911220555.jpg


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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-23 07:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-23 07:56 編輯

JTWC22/2000Z提升評級為Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 163.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 248
NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 220721Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair1123.jpg 23739.jpg
goes17_ir-dvorak_90P_201911222205.jpg


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jrchang5|2019-11-23 09:16 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS已將此擾動編號為01F。
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 222157 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE[1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 8.1S
165.6E AT 222100UTC. POSITION POOR. TD01F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTIONS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER THE
SUPPOSED LLCC BUT ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. TD01F LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVE SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHGMSCOL.jpeg 20191123.0020.hm8.x.vis1km.90PINVEST.20kts-1003mb-77S-1663E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-23 12:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC23/0330Z發布TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6S 166.0E TO 9.8S 169.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 166.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
163.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 166.3E,  APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT BY A 22229Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDES FOR MODERATE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPMENT INTO WARNING STATUS IS LIKELY BY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240330Z.//
NNNN
sh9020.gif 90P_gefs_latest.png
90P_230300sair.jpg


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jrchang5|2019-11-24 00:23 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS判定23/06Z升格為熱帶低壓,定強25kts。
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 230917 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 167.6E
AT 230600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 231406 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 168.0E
AT 231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD01F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.

TD01F HAS LLCC EXPOSED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS BUT CONVECTIVE BAND TO
NORTH HAS PERSISTED AND IS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. TD01F LIES UNDER
A MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION WITH LOW WIND SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREE CELSIUS. TD01F IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARDS TRACK WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2/0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WHICH YIELDS A
DT OF 2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE WITH DT. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 10.2S 168.9E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 11.5S 169.6E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 12.7S 170.0E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 13.7S 170.1E MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.
65660.gif 20191123.1530.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.90PINVEST.30kts-1001mb-93S-1678E.100pc.jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif

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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-24 11:27 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC24/00Z升格01P,首報上望70節
WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 168.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 10.8S 168.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 11.9S 169.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 14.3S 170.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 16.0S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.0S 172.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 17.7S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 168.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SUPPORTED BY A 232209Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS
FAVORABLE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL STEER TC 01P
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO DISTINCT
SCENARIOS ON THE TRACK OF TC 01P. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL STALL AFTER ABOUT
TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF
SOLUTION. WITH THAT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS
AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. IF TC 01P STALLS AS
DEPICTED BY THE OTHER MODELS, VWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND
THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN
sh0120.gif 01P_240000sair.jpg
goes17_truecolor_90P.gif goes17_ir_90P.gif


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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-24 17:03 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS06Z命名Rita,巔峰上望澳式C2
FKPS01 NFFN 240814

TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20191124/0600Z

TCAC: NFFN

TC: RITA

ADVISORY NR: 01

OBS PSN: 24/0600Z S1024 E16824

CB: WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600

MOV: SLW

C: 998HPA

MAX WIND: 35KT

FCST PSN +6HR: 24/1200 S1048 E16842

FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 24/1800 S1124 E16854

FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +18HR: 25/0000 S1200 E16912

FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT

FCST PSN +24HR: 25/0600 S1230 E16924

FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT

RMK: NIL

NXT MSG: 20191124/1300Z
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Fiji-Mete52561062.jpg 65660.gif
65643.gif goes17_ir_01P.gif
goes17_ir-dvorak_01P.gif


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