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95W JMA:TD[W] 長途跋涉 後期環境不佳

簽到天數: 1604 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2019-11-25 11:40 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:95 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 11 25 11
升格熱低日期:2019 11 29 14
撤編日期  :2019 12 07 05
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):20 kts ( DB )
海平面最低氣壓1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95WINVEST.15kts-47N-1760E

20191125.0300.himawari8.x.vis2km.95WINVEST.15kts-47N-1760E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 890 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-29 15:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-29 17:39 編輯

JTWC29/0600Z評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7N
158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LLC, BUT NOT
OVERHEAD. A 290429Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPLETE
LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE TO WARNING STATUS IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair29.jpg 24530.jpg



JMA亦同時升格TD
19112915.png
24531.jpg 24532.jpg
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簽到天數: 2364 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-11-30 13:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA00Z發布Warning
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 07.2N 155.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WNW SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

19113009.png

95W_gefs_latest.png

2019WP95_4KMIRIMG_201911300000.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-30 14:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC30/06Z提升評級為Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 158.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 233
NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
AN EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POCKETS
OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A 300421Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS A DEFINED LLC AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. A 292207Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS
15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC WITH HIGHER 30-35 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair1130.jpg 95W_gefs_latest.png
24800.jpg 24801.jpg
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簽到天數: 2364 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-12-1 10:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z取消W
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 155E WEST SLOWLY.

19120103.png

95W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

JTWC 發布TCFA
wp9519.gif
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簽到天數: 890 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-12-2 10:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-2 10:57 編輯

JTWC02/03Z取消TCFA,降評Medium
WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251Z DEC 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 010300). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 154.0E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012306Z 89GHZ MHS
IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF SHEARED CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

103612m6lj2aqdqq3hmhx6.gif 25097.jpg


JMA00Z亦將其降格為低壓帶
19120203.png 19120209.png


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-12-3 14:02 | 顯示全部樓層
再降評Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030000Z 89GHZ METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
HIGH (25-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MARGINAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

2019WP95_4KMIRIMG_201912030530.gif

vis-animated.gif

點評

12/04 06Z取消評級。  發表於 2019-12-4 14:47
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簽到天數: 890 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-12-4 15:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0600Z撤評
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 147.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

abpwsair1204jpg.jpg 20191204.0620.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.95WINVEST.15kts-1005mb-56N-1449E.100pc.jpg
20191204.0620.himawari8.x.wv1km.95WINVEST.15kts-1005mb-56N-1449E.100pc.jpg
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