老農民版夜神月

  深低壓  
編號：ARB 06 ( 07 A )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 12 月 02 日 05 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 12 月 03 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 12 月 07 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：996 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91A INVEST 191201 1800 7.9N 73.3E IO 15 1010


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC01/2230Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
73.3E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION. A 011648 METOP-B PASS SHOWS A WEAK, BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC跳過Medium,於03/1100Z發布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 031100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 71.1E TO 15.3N 68.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 030428Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 71.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 72.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030502Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
030428Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLEAR LLC WITH 30-35 KT WINDS TO
THE EAST AND 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG (15-
25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041100Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格07A,並預測此系統在未來數日內將逐漸由西北轉西移動

WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031051ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 70.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 70.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 14.4N 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 15.3N 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 16.0N 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.5N 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.9N 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.0E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07A (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD BANDING AND POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). BASED ON BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 031206Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS) DUE TO A 030428Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 35 KT WINDS
TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE. AT 28-29 CELSIUS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE.
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 07A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 24, HIGH
VWS SHOULD HAMPER INTENSIFICATION AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISSIPATION
PRIOR TO TAU 72. AS THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, THERE
ARE VERY LIMITED AIDS TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON TRACK OR INTENSITY,
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED AIDS AVAILABLE FOR THIS WARNING ALIGN WELL WITH
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE LIMITED GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 031100).//
NNNN

t02436

IMD已編號ARB 05A，目前為深低壓，預計12Z命名。

(A) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA:
THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA & LAKSHADWEEP AREA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 30 KMPH DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 04TH

DECEMBER, 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, NEAR LATITUDE 14.0°N AND LONGITUDE 70.0°E
ABOUT 640 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 440 KM OF WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANJIM (43192). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTWESTWARDS AWAY FROM INDIAN COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

06Z改編ARB 06

ARB/06/2019
Dated: 04.12.2019
Deep Depression over Eastcentral Arabian Sea lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 04th December, 2019, over eastcentral Arabian Sea, near latitude 14.9°N and longitude 69.3°E about 490km WSW of Panjim. It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於04/15Z發出最終報,並預測12小時內即將降格TD

WTIO32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 005   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 14.8N 68.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 68.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.2N 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 68.2E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 606
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A
COMPACT, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH FALLING
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES AND DECAYING STORM STRUCTURE. TC 07A IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), WHICH HAS DISPLACED ALL REMAINING CONVECTION TO
THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE NOW SHALLOW CIRCULATION
HAS TURNED WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. TC 07A WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS UNDER STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN