簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-12-5 05:23
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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-12-5 05:29 編輯
JTWC升格為Tropical Cyclone 03S首報：
WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 7.2S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 8.5S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.8S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.6S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.7S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 64.0E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 041650Z ASCAT-C PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 03S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP WITH
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SSTS.
THERE IS A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE LIFE
CYCLE OF TC 03S. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A MAXIMUM OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LEADING TO THE DISSIPATION OF TC 03S BY TAU 96. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO
THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS AND GEFS TRACKING EAST OF THE CURRENT TRACK
AND NAVGEM AND ECMWF TRACKING WEST LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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