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03S.Ambali 猛爆增強 命名18小時達VITC 西南印度洋史上最早VITC

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2019-12-3 07:25 | 顯示全部樓層
  特強熱帶氣旋  
編號:03-20192020 ( 03 S )
名稱:Ambali

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 12 03 05
JTWC升格日期:2019 12 05 02
命名日期  :2019 12 05 14
撤編日期  :2019 12 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ):120 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):135 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓:929 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
92S INVEST 191202 1800 5.0S 65.0E SHEM 15 0

25209.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-4 02:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC03/1800Z評級Low
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 55.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5S 65.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1088
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
030906Z 89GHZ AMSR2 GW1 SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, NVGM AND GFS SHOWING
VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION AS 92S TRACKS SOUTH WHILE UKMET
AND GSM SHOW LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

abpwsair1203.jpg cyclogenese.png
92S_gefs_latest.png 25315.jpg
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t02436|2019-12-4 13:14 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號擾動區第3號,上望STS。
ZCZC 163
WTIO30 FMEE 040049 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3
2.A POSITION 2019/12/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 64.5 E
(FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/04 12 UTC: 5.9 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2019/12/05 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/05 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
NNNN

SWI_20192020.png

JTWC提升評級至Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.5S 65.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 65.0E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040048Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP
CONVECTION MOVING OVER AND WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
(10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING 92S INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

2020SH92_4KMIRIMG_201912040430.gif

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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-4 15:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-4 15:19 編輯

JTWC04/0630Z發布TCFA
WTXS22 PGTW 040630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040321Z DEC 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8S 65.0E TO 8.0S 63.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120318Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.1S
65.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.5S 65.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1S 65.0E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040048Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DEEP
CONVECTION MOVING OVER AND WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
(10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 92S
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050630Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 52.0E
//
NNNN

sh9220.gif abpwsair1204jpg.jpg
20191204.0530.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.25kts-1003mb-51S-650E.100pc.jpg 20191204.0210.f17.x.composite.92SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-52S-650E.097pc.jpg
20191204.0210.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.92SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-52S-650E.097pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2019-12-4 17:20 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR判定04/06Z升格為熱帶低壓,定強30kts。
WTIO31 FMEE 040631
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/3/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 3
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.5 S / 64.8 E
(CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/12/2019 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 05/12/2019 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 63.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 05/12/2019 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
60H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-
SWI_20192020.png 20191204.0730.msg1.x.vis1km_high.92SINVEST.30kts-1003mb-58S-647E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-5 03:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-5 11:46 編輯

JTWC18Z速報定強35KT,若無意外此系統即將升格為03S
92S INVEST 191204 1800 7.2S 64.2E SHEM 35 1006

20191204.1500.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.92SINVEST.30kts-1004mb-64S-640E.100pc.jpg 20191204.1450.f17.x.geoir2.92SINVEST.30kts-1004mb-64S-640E.063pc.jpg
20191204.1413.coriolis.x.color37.92SINVEST.30kts-1004mb-64S-640E.069pc.jpg 20191204.1413.coriolis.x.37h.92SINVEST.30kts-1004mb-64S-640E.069pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2019-12-5 05:23 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-12-5 05:29 編輯

JTWC升格為Tropical Cyclone 03S首報:
WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 7.2S 64.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 64.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 8.5S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 9.7S 62.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 10.8S 62.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 11.6S 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 12.7S 60.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 13.7S 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 7.5S 64.0E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 041650Z ASCAT-C PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 03S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP WITH
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SSTS.
THERE IS A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE LIFE
CYCLE OF TC 03S. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A MAXIMUM OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
AFTER TAU 48 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LEADING TO THE DISSIPATION OF TC 03S BY TAU 96. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO
THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS AND GEFS TRACKING EAST OF THE CURRENT TRACK
AND NAVGEM AND ECMWF TRACKING WEST LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

sh0320.gif 03S_041800sair.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-5 16:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-5 16:41 編輯

MFR06Z升格中級熱帶風暴,命名Ambali
FKIO20 FMEE 050623
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20191205/0623Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: AMBALI
ADVISORY NR: 2019/01
OBS PSN: 05/0600Z S0836 E06330
CB: WI 280NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: SW 07KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1200Z S0922 E06301
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 05/1800Z S1005 E06234
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0000Z S1045 E06212
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 48KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/0600Z S1124 E06156
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191205/1200Z=

SWI_20192020.png 20191205.060000.terra.modis.Visible.tc2003STHREE.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg
20191205.060000.terra.modis.Vapor.tc2003STHREE.covg100p0.modislance.res1km.jpg 20191205.060000.terra.modis.Vapor.tc2003STHREE.covg100p0.modislance.res2km.jpg
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