(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 66.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 65.2E, APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 070522Z 89GHZ METOP-B SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OF 92B AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTIO21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 64.9E TO 10.6N 59.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 64.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 64.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071730Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE UKMET, JGSM, AND
ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CIRCULATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF 92B. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082100Z.//
NNNN
WTIO21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 64.9E TO 10.6N 59.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 64.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 64.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 64.7E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071730Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY
OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE UKMET, JGSM, AND
ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CIRCULATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF 92B. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082100Z.//
NNNN
Sub: Depression over southwest Arabian Sea
Latest observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Arabian Sea and lay
centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 08
th December, 2019 near latitude 9.4°N and longitude 62.2°E, about 970
km east-southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1540 km west-southwest of Cochin. It is very likely to
intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards till 9th
December morning and then westwards during subsequent 48 hours.
WTIO21 PGTW 081830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072051ZDEC19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 072100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 072100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 63.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 61.6E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081243Z SSMIS F-18
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
//
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