老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：97 W
擾動編號日期：2019 年 12 月 17 日 13 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 12 月 00 日 00 時
97W INVEST 191217 0600 4.0N 138.0E WPAC 15 0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18/0600Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OVERCAST. A 180016Z MHS
METOP-A 89 GHZ SHOWS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH SMALL
POCKETS OF CONVECTION. A 180016Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS UNDER CONVECTION. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING, LIKELY REACHING WARNING
THRESHOLD
NEAR THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS OR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.