(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0S 170.5W, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 200349Z
91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
FMS編號02F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
169.0W AT 192100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
VIS IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC AND
REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 7OOHPA.
THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 170.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 168.5W, APPROXIMATELY
147 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 210036Z 89GHZ AMSR2 SATELLITE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 97P IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH SOME
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
ABPW10 PGTW 230600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 166.8W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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