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11S.Esami 南印度洋雙旋共舞

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2020-1-22 07:29 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度熱帶風暴  
編號:07-20192020 ( 11 S )
名稱:Esami

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 01 22 05
JTWC升格日期:2020 01 25 02
命名日期  :2020 01 25 08
撤編日期  :2020 01 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ):45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):45 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:989 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
97S INVEST 200121 1800 19.8S 52.5E SHEM 20 1004

未命名.png

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作
-發展超乎預期

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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jrchang5|2020-1-22 18:47 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 22/0930Z評級Low。
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9S 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220619Z METOP-B ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOW AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 97S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 97S MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20200122.0930.msg-4.ir.97S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.18.9S.54.3E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-1-24 15:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-1-24 15:44 編輯

MFR24/06Z編號擾動區第7號,預測12H內將進一步增強為熱帶低壓,暫不看好升格中級熱帶風暴
WTIO31 FMEE 240714
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/7/20192020
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 7

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 66.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 25/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
48H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=2.0+

SWI_20192020.png 20200124.0630.msg1.x.vis1km.97SINVEST.20kts-1002mb-221S-670E.100pc.jpg
20200124.0630.msg1.x.ir1km.97SINVEST.20kts-1002mb-221S-670E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-1-25 02:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC24/1800Z提升評級為Medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 62.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9S 69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 640
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT, ORGANIZED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 241249Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (26-
27C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

97S_gefs_latest.png 20200124.1730.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.97SINVEST.20kts-1002mb-232S-688E.100pc.jpg
20200124.1730.msg1.ir.BD.97SINVEST.20kts-1002mb.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-1-25 12:21 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-1-25 12:35 編輯

MFR判定25/00Z升格為中度熱帶風暴,命名為Esami。
ZCZC 849
WTIO30 FMEE 250107 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)
2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
NNNN

SWI_20192020.png

JTWC亦將之升格為Tropical Cyclone 11S,並於24/21Z發出首報。
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 70.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 70.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.5S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.8S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 27.1S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.2S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 29.1S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 28.9S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 71.2E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
764 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIMELY 241648Z ASCAT-A IMAGE THAT REVEALS
35-40 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER. TC 11S IS
TRANSITING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTABLISHED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT
WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXPERIENCES HIGHER VWS IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72, VWS WILL INCREASE TO > 40KTS AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS INCREASING VWS ALONG WITH COOLER (<25C) SST BY TAU 72 WILL
CAUSE TC 11S TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE PERIPERY OF TC 10S TO
THE NORTHWEST (SEPARATION DISTANCE WILL BE ABOUT 543NM AT TAU 72 AND
320NM BY TAU 96). THIS INTERACTION, ALONG WITH FORCING BY RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE A SHARP RECURVE TO THE WEST. INCREASED VWS,
LOWER SST AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH AND
INTERACTION WITH 10S WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(DIANE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

sh1120.gif 20200125.0300.msg-1.vis.11S.ESAMI.45kts.997mb.23.7S.71.8E.100pc.jpg
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