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13S.Francisco 重返TC 登陸馬達加斯加

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2020-2-1 03:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-15 10:15 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :13 S
擾動編號日期:2020 02 01 02
撤編日期  :2020 02 00 00
90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8S.63E

20200131.1830.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8S.63E.080pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-2 02:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC01/1800Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.1S
62.6E, APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011254Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT BROAD, BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 011507 ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
NO DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AMD
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM (29-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20200201.1254.f18.x.composite.90SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-91S-626E.098pc.jpg
20200201.1452.f17.ir.olsircomp.90S.INVEST.x.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-4 01:52 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC03/1800Z提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 62.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 63.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 031442Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT CONTINUED BUILDING CONVECTION
OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM (29-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH, AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

cyclogenese.png 20200203.1600.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.90SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-133S-638E.100pc.jpg
20200203.1442.f17.x.composite.90SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-133S-638E.087pc.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-4 22:06 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR04/12Z編號不穩定天氣區第8號,定強30KT;上望中度熱帶風暴,40KT
WTIO31 FMEE 041238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/8/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 8

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 65.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 520

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2020 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 05/02/2020 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 06/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
60H: 07/02/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
72H: 07/02/2020 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES: FT=CI=1.5

SWI_20192020.png 90S_gefs_latest.png
未命名.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-5 00:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC04/1500Z發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S 65.2E TO 18.2S 68.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 65.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 63.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 65.3E, APPROXIMATELY 548
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041342Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051500Z.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg sh9020.gif
90S_041500sair.jpg

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jrchang5|2020-2-5 06:09 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC判定04/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 13S。
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041451ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 18.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.7S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.7S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.0S 65.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 66.8E.
04FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A DIRECT 041740Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST. THIS IMAGE
PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY,
WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT. LOCATED IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ROBUST
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
BEGIN TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ACT
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THAT, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL TURN
TC 13S TO A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. CONCURRENTLY,
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24.
HOWEVER, DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 24.
SPECIFICALLY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION, CAUSING
IMPACTS TO THE STR STEERING TC 13S IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DUE
TO THESE DIFFERENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 041500).//
NNNN
sh1320.gif

MFR亦判定同一時間升格為熱帶低壓第8號。
ZCZC 236
WTIO30 FMEE 041833 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2020/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 66.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 370
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
NNNN
SWI_20192020.png 20200204.2030.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.13STHIRTEEN.35kts-1002mb-158S-664E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-5 15:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-5 15:15 編輯

05/06Z升格中度熱帶風暴,定強40KT,命名Francisco
FKIO20 FMEE 050605
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200205/0605Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: FRANCISCO
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 05/0600Z S1718 E06848
CB: WI 350NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: ESE 13KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 05/1200Z S1801 E06943
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 43KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 05/1800Z S1840 E07018
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/0000Z S1910 E07016
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/0600Z S1931 E06958
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200205/1200Z=
SWI_20192020.png 43209.jpg
43210.jpg 43211.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-14 00:16 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR13/12Z判定已再次增強為熱帶低氣壓
JTWC亦於13/1230Z再度將其評級為Low
WTIO30 FMEE 131248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FRANCISCO)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/02/14 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/02/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/15 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 18.0S 50.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. METOP-A ASCAT IMAGERY FROM 130549Z INDICATES 25-30 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A CONFINED AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF GRADIENT-INDUCED, CONVERGENT
FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C), STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
30 KNOTS) AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER LAND MAKES ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AND EVENTUALLY
INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
SWI_20192020.png 44708.jpg
未命名.png 44709.jpg
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