開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

15P.Uesi 經喀里多尼亞西方近海 逐漸轉化

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-2-1 23:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2020-2-21 16:40 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :15 P ( 06F )
擾動編號日期:2020 02 01 22
撤編日期  :2020 02 13 11
91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-90S-1540E

20200201.1050.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-90S-1540E.100pc.jpg

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-6 15:35 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06/0600評級Low
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 060600Z-070600ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060311Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU
72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

abpwsair.jpg goes17_wv-mid_91P_202002060605.jpg
91P_gefs_latest.png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-7 15:52 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS編號06F;JTWC07/0600Z提升評級至Medium
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.1S
163.1E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT. TD06F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE OUT FLOW. SST IS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW, BUT IS MODERATE TO HIGH THEREAFTER.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST
91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 161.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S
164.4E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070216Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91P
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, SHIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 54. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
   

未命名.png abpwsair.jpg
vis0.gif swir0.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-8 14:24 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-8 17:17 編輯

JTWC08/0300Z發布TCFA,FMS新報預測大約+24H後將升格TC
WTPS21 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 163.7E TO 17.5S 163.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 163.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY
353 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 071952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW
LEVEL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 072240Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOTS
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS WITH EASTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE 91P WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090300Z.
//
NNNN

sh9120.gif 91P_070300sair.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Fiji-Mete92291156.jpg 65643.gif
65660.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1193 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-2-9 13:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 已於09/03Z 升格為15P,強度上看C1
FMS 09/00Z預計將於+12hr升格,預測強度至澳式C2

TPPS10 PGTW 090314

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN)

B. 09/0230Z

C. 14.94S

D. 163.77E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN
        Time (UTC)        Intensity Category        Latitude
(decimal deg.)        Longitude
(decimal deg.)        Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr        12 am February 9        tropical low        14.9S        163.6E        85
+6hr        6 am February 9        tropical low        15.2S        163.5E        110
+12hr        12 pm February 9        1        15.4S        163.6E        140
+18hr        6 pm February 9        1        15.7S        163.6E        165
+24hr        12 am February 10        1        16.0S        163.6E        195
+36hr        12 pm February 10        2        16.8S        163.7E        255
+48hr        12 am February 11        2        17.6S        163.8E        315
+60hr        12 pm February 11        2        18.4S        164.1E        405
+72hr        12 am February 12        2        19.3S        164.5E        490
15P_090000sair.jpg
sh1520.gif
65660.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-9 21:42 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS09/12Z判定其已增強達澳式C1,命名Uesi,巔峰暫時上望澳式C2
GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091308 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH 163.9
EAST AT 091200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.9S 163.9E at 091200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS BY
100000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.6S 164.0E AT 100000 UTC
AND NEAR 17.4S 164.0E AT 101200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 005.

#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Fiji-Mete95742375.jpg 65643.gif
65660.gif goes17_vis-swir_91P_202002091205.jpg
SHGMSCOL.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-10 23:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC10/12Z判定其已升格為C1,定強65KT,並預測其24H後上望75KT
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 162.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 162.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 18.5S 162.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.5S 162.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 20.5S 162.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 21.5S 162.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 24.2S 160.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 27.5S 157.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
101029Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 101030Z
ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THIS
ASCAT IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON PGTW/KNES/NFFN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY,
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 100736Z SMAP IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM
1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 62.4 KNOTS. TC UESI WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 72, TC UESI WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW (15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SST VALUES (28C). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 15P TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM
25 TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 277NM AT TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z,
110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

sh1520.gif 15P_101200sair.jpg
bd0.gif swir0.gif
goes17_ir_15P_202002101445.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1129 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-2-11 10:27 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS10/18Z升格澳式C3,定強65KT,11/00Z維持,並上望75KT
JTWC11/00Z定強75KT,上望80KT
15P UESI 200211 0000 18.8S 162.6E SHEM 75 974
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 110145 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE UESI CENTRE 976HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S
162.7E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS/EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT
ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. BUT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IMPEDING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UESI IS
MOVING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EYE WITH MG SURROUND WHICH YIELDS A
DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDS
T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 20.0S 162.7E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 21.1S 162.7E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 22.2S 162.4E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 23.5S 161.6E MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON UESI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
108000 UTC.

65660.gif sh1520.gif
goes17_wv-mid_15P_202002102345.jpg goes17_vis-swir_15P_202002102345.jpg
goes17_ir_15P_202002102345.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

12下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表