簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2020-3-14 22:09
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雖BoM,JTWC12Z定強均已達35KT,但結構尚存在問題,槽性仍然明顯
JTWC仍認定其為季風低壓,BoM亦尚未升格此系統
SH, 96, 2020031412, , BEST, 0, 177S, 1582E, 35, 989, MD IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 14/03/2020
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.0S
Longitude: 158.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [110 deg]
Speed of Movement: 19 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 400 nm [740 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 14/1800: 19.2S 159.2E: 070 [135]: 035 [065]: 994
+12: 15/0000: 20.3S 160.6E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 988
+18: 15/0600: 21.8S 162.3E: 095 [180]: 050 [095]: 985
+24: 15/1200: 23.4S 164.0E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 980
+36: 16/0000: 27.0S 167.6E: 130 [240]: 055 [100]: 978
+48: 16/1200: 29.9S 171.3E: 150 [275]: 055 [100]: 976
+60: 17/0000: 31.8S 174.5E: 170 [310]: 055 [100]: 975
+72: 17/1200: 32.3S 178.0E: 185 [345]: 050 [095]: 979
+96: 18/1200: : : :
+120: 19/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
The system has continued to develop slightly in the last several hours and cloud
signatures suggest it is on the verge of achieving tropical cyclone strength. A
large convective bloom near the estimated system centre has persisted over the
last few hours and now exhibits signs of increasing curvature. The system centre
was estimated from rapid-scan enhanced IR satellite imagery, recent microwave
imagery at 0911Z, as well as a 1047Z ASCAT scatterometer pass. Location
confidence is moderate.
Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 2.5 [3.0 when 0.5 added for white band] based on
a curved band pattern with a 0.55 degree wrap [3-hour average 0.5-0.55 wrap].
MET and PAT are both 2.5 resulting in a FT of 2.5. Intensity set to 35 knots
given the observations in the ASCAT pass, which indicated gales mostly in the
northeast quadrant, with gales in the southwest quadrant well displaced from the
centre associated with a convective band. Latest NESDIS ADT suggests a CI of 3.7
and Vmax of 59 knots [1-min mean], however this is likely an over-estimate due
to the use of an EYE scene type!
The low is expected to develop at a standard rate for the next 24 hours, after
which it is likely to slow as the system becomes more proximate to the upper
trough and shear becomes less conducive for intensification.
Gales are likely in the southwest and northeast quadrants away from the centre
before it reaches tropical cyclone strength, due to a strong ridge along the
Queensland east coast and a vigorous northwesterly surge. The low is expected to
continue moving along a southeasterly trajectory steered by an approaching upper
trough.
From Monday the system will be experiencing increasing deep-layer wind shear and
dry-air intrusion as the upper trough approaches from the west and sea-surface
temperatures become less favourable, however NWP suggests the low-level
circulation will remain well defined with gales in all quadrants and storm force
winds in most. By Tuesday the system is likely to have undergone extra-tropical
transition as it interacts with the upper trough into an increasingly high shear
environment and sea surface temperatures decrease further.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1930 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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