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23S.Gretel 自紐西蘭北方通過 轉化溫氣

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-3-9 12:08 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :95 S→96P
擾動編號日期:2020 03 09 11
撤編日期  :2020 03 00 00
95S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11.4S.136.5E
20200309.0250.himawari-8.vis.95S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11.4S.136.5E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-3-9 13:06 | 顯示全部樓層

96P

  基本資料  
編號    :96 P
擾動編號日期:2020 03 09 12
撤編日期  :2020 03 00 00
96P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.12S.137E

20200309.0430.himawari-8.vis.96P.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.12S.137E.100pc.jpg

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jrchang5|2020-3-10 02:49 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 09/1530Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.4S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 101 NM NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. A 091232Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
SURROUNDING 96P, WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
A 091118Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED WIND FIELD
SURROUNDING THE LLC WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 96P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD
OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
CROSSING OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA NEAR TAU 48, 96P WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20200309.1820.himawari-8.ir.96P.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.11.9S.138.8E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-3-10 03:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-3-10 03:05 編輯

主流數值系集支持此系統後期強度發展

180712q03o93yosyb1y0e0.png 96P_gefs_latest.png
未命名.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-3-11 14:24 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-3-11 16:11 編輯

JTWC 11/0600Z提升評級至Medium,BoM上望澳式C3
ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 110600Z-120600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY
307 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 102318Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AREAS
OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. 96P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND SUPPORTED
BY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OF LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SURROUNDING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT THAT 96P CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER
WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg 未命名.png
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Tropical-66937578.jpg 未命名1.png

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-3-11 23:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-3-11 23:32 編輯

JTWC11/1500Z發布TCFA
WTPS21 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S 143.2E TO 15.3S 148.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 143.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY
213 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 111150Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION. 96P IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OF LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT AS 96P CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK EASTWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD, QUICKLY INTENSIFYING OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121500Z.//
NNNN

sh9620.gif
2020sh96_4kmsrbdc_202003111430.jpg
2020sh96_4kmirimg_202003111430.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-3-14 22:09 | 顯示全部樓層
雖BoM,JTWC12Z定強均已達35KT,但結構尚存在問題,槽性仍然明顯
JTWC仍認定其為季風低壓,BoM亦尚未升格此系統
SH, 96, 2020031412, , BEST, 0, 177S, 1582E, 35, 989, MD
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1331 UTC 14/03/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.0S
Longitude: 158.0E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [110 deg]
Speed of Movement: 19 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 400 nm [740 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  14/1800: 19.2S 159.2E:     070 [135]:  035  [065]:  994
+12:  15/0000: 20.3S 160.6E:     085 [155]:  045  [085]:  988
+18:  15/0600: 21.8S 162.3E:     095 [180]:  050  [095]:  985
+24:  15/1200: 23.4S 164.0E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  980
+36:  16/0000: 27.0S 167.6E:     130 [240]:  055  [100]:  978
+48:  16/1200: 29.9S 171.3E:     150 [275]:  055  [100]:  976
+60:  17/0000: 31.8S 174.5E:     170 [310]:  055  [100]:  975
+72:  17/1200: 32.3S 178.0E:     185 [345]:  050  [095]:  979
+96:  18/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 19/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
The system has continued to develop slightly in the last several hours and cloud
signatures suggest it is on the verge of achieving tropical cyclone strength. A
large convective bloom near the estimated system centre has persisted over the
last few hours and now exhibits signs of increasing curvature. The system centre
was estimated from rapid-scan enhanced IR satellite imagery, recent microwave
imagery at 0911Z, as well as a 1047Z ASCAT scatterometer pass. Location
confidence is moderate.

Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 2.5 [3.0 when 0.5 added for white band] based on
a curved band pattern with a 0.55 degree wrap [3-hour average 0.5-0.55 wrap].
MET and PAT are both 2.5 resulting in a FT of 2.5. Intensity set to 35 knots
given the observations in the ASCAT pass, which indicated gales mostly in the
northeast quadrant, with gales in the southwest quadrant well displaced from the
centre associated with a convective band. Latest NESDIS ADT suggests a CI of 3.7
and Vmax of 59 knots [1-min mean], however this is likely an over-estimate due
to the use of an EYE scene type!

The low is expected to develop at a standard rate for the next 24 hours, after
which it is likely to slow as the system becomes more proximate to the upper
trough and shear becomes less conducive for intensification.

Gales are likely in the southwest and northeast quadrants away from the centre
before it reaches tropical cyclone strength, due to a strong ridge along the
Queensland east coast and a vigorous northwesterly surge. The low is expected to
continue moving along a southeasterly trajectory steered by an approaching upper
trough.

From Monday the system will be experiencing increasing deep-layer wind shear and
dry-air intrusion as the upper trough approaches from the west and sea-surface
temperatures become less favourable, however NWP suggests the low-level
circulation will remain well defined with gales in all quadrants and storm force
winds in most. By Tuesday the system is likely to have undergone extra-tropical
transition as it interacts with the upper trough into an increasingly high shear
environment and sea surface temperatures decrease further.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1930 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Tropical-69580484.jpg IDQ65001.png
SHGMSCOL.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-3-15 01:09 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM14/15Z報升格澳式C1,命名Gretel
FKAU05 ADRM 141524
TC ADVISORY
DTG:                 20200314/1500Z
TCAC:                DARWIN
TC:                  GRETEL
ADVISORY NR:         2020/5
OBS PSN:             14/1500Z S1812 E15842
CB:                  WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV:                 ESE 19KT
C:                   992HPA
MAX WIND:            35KT
FCST PSN +6HR:       14/2100 S1930 E15954
FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  40KT
FCST PSN +12HR:      15/0300 S2048 E16118
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR:      15/0900 S2224 E16300
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR:      15/1500 S2406 E16442
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK:                 NIL
NXT MSG:             20200314/1900Z

50118.jpg IDQ65001.png
50119.jpg 50120.jpg
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