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WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 159.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 159.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 11.4S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.7S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.9S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.6S 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.3S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.1S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.4S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 160.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
694 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE TURNING OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 021755Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC AND A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-3.0 (30-45 KTS) BASED
ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 25P. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER THE STEERING, TURNING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWING THE SYSTEM SPEED. AROUND TAU 72, TC 25P
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 85 KTS BY TAU 96, SUPPORTED BY
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER, TURNING TC 25P
POLEWARD BY TAU 12. CONVERSELY, THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL MAJORITY. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600).//
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