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25P.Harold 南太平洋史上最強4月TC

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2020-3-30 15:01 | 顯示全部樓層
  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:12 F12 U ( 25 P )
名稱:Harold

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 03 30 13
JTWC升格日期:2020 04 03 02
命名日期  :2020 04 02 14
                         2020 04 03 14 - FMS接續發報

撤編日期  :2020 04 12 04

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
澳洲氣象局 ( BoM ):35 kt( Cat.1 )
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):120 kt ( Cat.5 )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):145 kt ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓:912 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
90P INVEST 200330 0000 5.3S 147.1E SHEM 15 1010
134134pct6jdohhhgy614h.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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jrchang5|2020-3-31 08:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 31/00Z評級Low。
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2S
149.3E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA
NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301821Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
SOME FLARING CONVECTION. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20200331.0000.himawari-8.vis.90P.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.8.7S.153.2E.100pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-4-1 11:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01/01Z提升評級至Medium。
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 311951Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. 90P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20200401.0230.himawari-8.vis.90P.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.9.4S.153.8E.100pc.jpg 90P_gefs_latest.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-4-2 14:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-4-2 15:40 編輯

JTWC02/0600Z發布TCFA;BoM將其升格為澳式C1,命名Harold,巔峰上望85KT
WTPS21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 156.4E TO 12.0S 162.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 156.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 153.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 221
NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020346Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). 90P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 90P WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030600Z.//
NNNN

sh9020.gif 90P_020600sair.jpg
90P_gefs_latest.png

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 02/04/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Harold
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 156.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [135 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  02/1200: 10.2S 157.6E:     040 [075]:  040  [075]:  994
+12:  02/1800: 10.6S 158.4E:     045 [085]:  045  [085]:  991
+18:  03/0000: 11.0S 159.3E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  988
+24:  03/0600: 11.4S 160.3E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  988
+36:  03/1800: 12.3S 161.9E:     075 [140]:  060  [110]:  981
+48:  04/0600: 13.3S 163.1E:     090 [165]:  065  [120]:  977
+60:  04/1800: 14.3S 163.7E:     110 [200]:  070  [130]:  972
+72:  05/0600: 14.8S 163.8E:     125 [235]:  075  [140]:  967
+96:  06/0600: 15.2S 164.4E:     170 [315]:  085  [155]:  958
+120: 07/0600: 16.1S 167.5E:     260 [480]:  080  [150]:  965
REMARKS:
The system has shown rapid intensification over the last six hours and is
breaking Dvorak constraints. Very tight curvature of a persistent, deep
convective band into the centre is evident on visible and EIR imagery.
Confidence in the centre location is high.

A 3 hour average of 0.6 curved band wrap yields a DT of 3.0, and the 0.6 curved
band wrap is also supported by the 02/0501Z SSMI microwave pass. 01/2247Z ASCAT
pass revealed 30kt wind barbs to the south of the centre, suggesting NWP is
underestimating the system intensity. SHIPS is also underestimating current
intensity based on satellite signatures.

The system is being steered towards the southeast by an upper trough to the
west, which is also providing good poleward outflow.  This upper trough will be
the main steering influence with fairly steady southeast motion expected over
the coming days.

TC Harold will remain in a very favourable environment for intensification over
the next 48 hours, within a narrow band of low shear underneath an upper ridge,
with SST values of around 30 degrees celsius. Eventual proximity to the upper
trough late in the weekend or early next week may begin to inhibit further
intensification of the system, however intensification to category 4 strength
can not be ruled out at this stage.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

IDQ65001.png 20200402.0346.gpm.composite.90P.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.9.4S.156.3E.045pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-4-3 05:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 02/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 25P,中心逐漸逼近索羅門群島。
25P HAROLD
As of 18:00 UTC Apr 02, 2020:

Location: 9.9°S 159.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
sh252020.20200402205807.gif 20200402.2020.himawari-8.vis.25P.HAROLD.35kts.1000mb.9.9S.159.5E.100pc.jpg 20200402.1755.f18.91pct91h91v.25P.HAROLD.35kts.1000mb.9.9S.159.5E.075pc.jpg rb_lalo-animated.gif
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霧峰追風者|2020-4-3 05:14 | 顯示全部樓層
WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 159.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 159.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 11.4S 161.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 12.7S 163.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 164.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.6S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.3S 165.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.1S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.4S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 160.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
694 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE TURNING OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 021755Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC AND A REGION OF DEEP  CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-3.0 (30-45 KTS) BASED
ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 25P. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER THE STEERING, TURNING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWING THE SYSTEM SPEED. AROUND TAU 72, TC 25P
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 85 KTS BY TAU 96, SUPPORTED BY
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER, TURNING TC 25P
POLEWARD BY TAU 12. CONVERSELY, THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL MAJORITY. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600).//
NNNN
smsh252020.20200402205807.gif 20200402.2040.himawari-8.vis.25P.HAROLD.35kts.1000mb.9.9S.159.5E.100pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-4-3 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
中心已通過東經160度,BoM已發出最終報,將由FMS接續發報。
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0144 UTC 03/04/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Harold
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 160.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [101 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  03/0600: 11.3S 161.7E:     040 [080]:  035  [065]:  996
+12:  03/1200: 12.2S 162.6E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  990
+18:  03/1800: 12.9S 163.4E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  983
+24:  04/0000: 13.6S 164.0E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  978
+36:  04/1200: 14.5S 164.9E:     100 [185]:  075  [140]:  969
+48:  05/0000: 15.1S 165.3E:     120 [220]:  080  [150]:  964
+60:  05/1200: 15.4S 165.8E:     140 [255]:  085  [155]:  959
+72:  06/0000: 15.7S 166.8E:     155 [290]:  085  [155]:  960
+96:  07/0000: 16.7S 170.5E:     200 [370]:  085  [155]:  962
+120: 08/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
TC Harold has continued to show improved organisation over the last 12-24 hours.
The current intensity is based on curved band wrap of 0.6 yielding a DT of 3.0.
MET is 2.5 and PT 2.5 FT based on DT. CI maintained at 3.0.

The system is being steered towards the east-southeast by a weak upper low to
the south. A slight curve to the south is likely from late today as the upper
low weakens and the mid level ridge to the east temporarily builds a little.
These features are likely to weaken over the weekend, with the motion of the
cyclone becoming significantly slower, before a new upper trough developing and
moving east over the Tasman Sea leads to a renewed acceleration to the
southeast.

TC Harold will remain in a very favourable environment for intensification over
the next 48 hours, within an area of weak vertical shear underneath an upper
ridge, excellent upper outflow both poleward and equatorward, and over SSTs of
around 30 degrees celsius. Statistical RI guidance is extremely favourable for a
period of rapid intensification in the next 24 to 36 hours. The forecast calls
for intensification at a greater than climatological rate over this period,
followed by a plateauing early next week when proximity to the upper trough may
begin to inhibit further intensification of the system as vertical shear
increases. It should be noted that development at an even faster rate than
forecast is possible, which could bring the system to category 4 or above near
the central islands of Vanuatu.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system as it has now moved into Nadi
RSMC's area of responsibility [east of the Australian Eastern Region].
IDQ65001.png 20200403.0130.himawari-8.vis.25P.HAROLD.40kts.1000mb.10.4S.161.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-4-3 15:54 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS於03/0600Z開始接手發報
目前25P已將92P併入系統,未來將朝東南方向移動,進逼萬那杜
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH
162.2 EAST AT 030600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 162.2E at 030600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY
031800 UTC AND INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY 040600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 163.7E AT 031800 UTC
AND NEAR 14.4S 164.7E AT 040600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

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