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01B.Amphan 北半球今年第一個C5 直襲恆河三角洲

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2020-5-12 18:53 | 顯示全部樓層
  超級氣旋風暴  
編號:BOB 01 ( 01 B )
名稱:Amphan

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 05 12 18
JTWC升格日期:2020 05 16 14
命名日期  :2020 05 16 23
撤編日期  :2019 05 22 08
登陸地點  :印度 西孟加拉邦

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD ):120 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):140 kts ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓:907 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91B.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.6.8N.91E

20200512.1020.himawari-8.vis.91B.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.6.8N.91E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1013 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-5-12 22:12 | 顯示全部樓層
目前兩大主流數值(EC,GFS)均十分看好此系統未來強度發展
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_fh0-240.gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_india_31.png
91B_gefs_latest.png

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侵襲孟加拉和緬甸交界機會大  發表於 2020-5-13 01:09
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-14 01:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於13/1800Z將其評級為Low
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAY2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131243Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SOME WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. INVEST 91B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 91B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg 91B_tracks_latest.png
20200513.1710.himawari-8.ir.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9.1N.87.7E.100pc.jpg 20200513.1243.f17.91pct91h91v.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.9.1N.87.7E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-15 02:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於14/1800Z提升其評級為Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 87.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141230Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTH. INVEST 91B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91B WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD IN THE BAY OF
BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20200514.1750.himawari-8.ir.91B.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.10.5N.87.6E.100pc.jpg
161215kee5ip72nqimuq2b.png 91B_gefs_latest.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-15 19:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-5-15 20:19 編輯

JTWC於15/1000Z發布TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 86.3E TO 12.8N 85.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 602
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 150746Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91B WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161000Z.//
NNNN
io9120.gif 20200515.1150.himawari-8.ir.91B.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.9.4N.86.2E.100pc.jpg 20200515.1121.f18.91h.91B.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.9.4N.86.2E.075pc.jpg 20200515.1121.f18.91pct91h91v.91B.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.9.4N.86.2E.075pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-16 12:38 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD於03Z開始發報,預測+12H(16/12Z)即將升格氣旋風暴
初報上望極強氣旋風暴(Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm),90KT
The well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal concentrated into depression has formed over Southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 16th May, 2020 near latitude 10.4°N and longitude 87.0°E, about 1100 km south of Paradip (Odisha), 1250 km south of Digha (West Bengal) and 1330 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh). It is very likely to intensify rapidly into a Cyclonic Storm by today evening and further into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards initially till 17th May and then re-curve north-northeastwards across northwest Bay of Bengal towards West Bengal coast during 18th to 20th May 2020.

tcacgraphic.png ftrack.png
qwind.png 未命名.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-16 16:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC16/06Z升格01B,並上望C2,90節
WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 10.5N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.7N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 14.2N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.8N 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.8N 90.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE,
CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANSIVE (OVER 600NM ACROSS) RAIN BANDS . THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FR0M A 160309Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (31C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR  WEAKENS. VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE TC MOVES
POLEWARD, HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION BEING
IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL EASILY OFFSET THE VWS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY WARM SST WILL PROMOTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS. AFTERWARD, TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED
TO 30KTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

io0120.gif 未命名.png
未命名01.png 未命名02.png
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[LV.7]常住居民III

yckao|2020-5-16 17:38 | 顯示全部樓層
颱風尾會變成梅雨鋒面影響台灣嗎?
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