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02E.Amanda→03L.Cristobal 逐漸北上 登陸美國

簽到天數: 1048 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-5-30 01:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-6-8 17:10 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :02 E
擾動編號日期:2020 05 30 00
撤編日期  :2020 06 00 00

91E.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.10.7N.90.7W
005909ld757f77mz0elk2w.jpg

  NHC:50%  
1. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Although this
system remains poorly organized, environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression
could form this weekend.  This disturbance is expected to move
slowly northward toward Central America and southern Mexico during
the next couple of days.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
this weekend and early next week.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.  See products from your local weather office
for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png
two_pac_2d1.png

--近岸獲名 登陸瓜地馬拉

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1048 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-5-30 08:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC29/2200Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 91.6W TO 13.7N 92.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 91.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0N  91.7W, APPROXIMATELY 1878 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. 91E IS CURRENTLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(<15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 91E WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD TOWARDS MEXICO WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
NNNN

ep9120.gif goes16_truecolor_91E_202005292125.gif
91E_gefs_latest.png GOES23502020150isWw5U.jpg

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-5-31 02:08 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC提升評級為High,80%/80%
1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located just off the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador continue to become better organized.  If
the current trend continues, advisories could be initiated on this
system later today or tonight. Interests in El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
system as it is expected to move across those locations tonight and
Sunday.  

Regardless of development, this slow moving disturbance is expected
to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next few days.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.  See products from your local national
meteorological service for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
014959we533fz18gb3fnfj.jpg goes16_ir_91E_202005301525.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-5-31 10:25 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z升格02E,即將登陸,不看好發展
932
WTPZ42 KNHC 302038
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022020
400 PM CDT Sat May 30 2020

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system that NHC has
been monitoring near the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador has
developed sufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined
center to be classified a tropical depression.  It should be noted
that this depression is embedded within a large gyre that is spread
out across the far eastern Pacific and portions of Central America.
The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, following the maximum wind
observed in recent ASCAT passes and a Dvorak classification from
TAFB.  The depression could strengthen a little before it reaches
the coast of Guatemala early Sunday, but significant strengthening
is not expected given the broad structure of the cyclone and its
limited time over water.  A tropical storm warning has been issued
by the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador for the entire
coastline of those countries.

The initial motion of the depression is estimated to be 030/3 kt,
but this is highly uncertain given that the center of the system
has only recently become well defined.  The track models are in
fairly good agreement that a slow northward or north-northeastward
should occur through landfall, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate over the rugged terrain of Guatemala late Sunday or
Sunday night.

The main hazard from the system, and the larger gyre, is expected to
be heavy rainfall.  The depression's slow forward motion, large
size, and abundant tropical moisture could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico.  For additional information, see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.3N  91.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 13.2N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 15.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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GOES02102020152XkSRHK.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2020-5-31 17:27 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC再次近岸命名,02E31/09Z獲名Amanda,定強35KT
並且預測Amanda殘餘有橫越中美洲陸地後進入墨西哥灣再發展的可能
WTPZ42 KNHC 310854
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022020
400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that the
depression has once again become better organized after a brief
hiatus a few hours ago. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt
based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON satellite intensity
estimates of 34 kt and 38 kt, respectively.

The initial motion estimate is 020/08 kt, which is based on several
passive microwave and ASCAT scatterometer fixes.  Amanda is
embedded within the eastern periphery of a larger cyclonic gyre
centered over eastern Mexico. The cyclone is expected to remain
trapped within the larger gyre for the next few days, resulting in
a north-northeastward to northward motion today, followed by a much
slower northwestward to westward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the remnant low possibly emerging over the Bay of Campeche on
days 2 and 3. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory through 24 hours, but additional forecast track positions
were added through 72 hours due to the possibility of the system
moving over the Bay of Campeche, which could result in the formation
of a new tropical cyclone.

Little change in strength is expected before landfall occurs. After
landfall, the cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over the
mountains of Central America.  However, the large size of the
circulation could still produce winds of 20-25 kt over the adjacent
waters of the eastern North Pacific, Gulf of Honduras, and the Bay
of Campeche for the next 2-3 days.

The main hazards from Amanda, and the larger gyre in which the
cyclone is embedded, are expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding.
Amanda's slow forward motion, large size, and abundant tropical
moisture could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across portions of Central America and southern Mexico, and these
threats will continue well after Amanda moves inland.  For
additional information, see products issued by your national
meteorological service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 13.8N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 15.2N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  01/0600Z 17.4N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H  01/1800Z 18.7N  91.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  02/0600Z 19.0N  92.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  02/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  03/0600Z 18.4N  93.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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GOES09002020152jFHkjN.jpg two_atl_5d2.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-6-1 14:58 | 顯示全部樓層
將跨洋區入北大西洋
NHC將02E.Amanda重新編號為93L,評級Medium60%/70%
20200601.0610.goes-16.ir.93L.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.17.6N.90W.100pc.jpg two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-6-1 22:20 | 顯示全部樓層
FWC-N01/1400Z發布TCFA
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
WTNT22 KNGU 011400
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/010900Z JUN 20//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 89.8W TO 17.8N 92.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 90.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUENCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ARE CURRENTLY 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011155Z
INDICATES THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED INLAND
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17.5N 89.4W. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST
AT 5 KNOTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 021400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 57.8W//

220012vbsurz4suqwzbfqq.gif 93L_gefs_latest.png
goes16_ir_93L_202006011135.gif goes16_vis-swir_93L_202006011145.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-6-2 10:29 | 顯示全部樓層
再度升格,編號03L,短期滯留打轉。
000
WTNT43 KNHC 012100
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche.  Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche.  After that time,
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with
land.  Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical
storm strength.  Later in the period, the guidance suggests that
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt.  The system
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward,
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of
days.  On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high.  After
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario.  In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.  
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5.  The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week.  The latter portion of both the track and intensity
forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 19.6N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  02/0600Z 19.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  02/1800Z 19.5N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  03/0600Z 19.2N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  03/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  04/0600Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  04/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  05/1800Z 19.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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GOES0210202015410hySH.jpg
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