3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical
depression in a few days while it moves west-northwestward
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
WTPN22 PHNC 241330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240330ZJUN20//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N 99.9W TO 15.0N 104.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 100.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0N 100.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1535NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE. A TIMELY 241207Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING AND
PRESENCE OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94E WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 131.3W.//
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast
of Mexico remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are
expected to become only marginally conducive for the development of
a tropical cyclone within the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.