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04E 型態好轉 終獲升格

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2020-6-28 15:13 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-6-30 11:21 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :04 E
擾動編號日期:2020 06 28 09
撤編日期  :2020 06 00 00

95E INVEST 200628 0000 14.8N 105.0W EPAC 25 1006

20200628.0640.goes-17.ir.95E.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.14.8N.105W.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
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老農民版夜神月|2020-6-29 17:01 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC提升評級為Medium,50%/50%
1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has decreased during the past several hours. The
disturbance is moving northwestward toward colder water, but it
could still briefly become a tropical depression if showers and
thunderstorms redevelop on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
20200629.0830.goes-17.ir.95E.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.8N.111.2W.100pc.jpg 20200629.0746.gpm.composite.95E.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.8N.111.2W.050pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-30 11:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-7-1 03:21 編輯

NHC30/03Z升格04E,定強30KT,預測將短暫發展,24H內成為後熱帶氣旋(殘餘低氣壓)
WTPZ44 KNHC 300232
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has
maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the
convection has not been particularly well organized at times today,
a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level
center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past
several hours.  Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of
1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a
30-kt tropical depression.  The system is expected to be a short-
lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around
24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning.  As a result, the depression
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.  The NHC
wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance
and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central
Mexico.  The cyclone should continue moving on the same general
heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is
steered by the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement
with the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

023401_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png 20200630.0240.goes-17.ir.04E.FOUR.30kts.1004mb.20.4N.112.5W.100pc.jpg 20200629.2357.f18.91h.95E.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.20.4N.112.5W.090pc.jpg 20200629.2357.f18.91pct91h91v.95E.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.20.4N.112.5W.090pc.jpg
goes17_ir_95E_202006300035.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2020-7-1 03:19 | 顯示全部樓層
04E將開始於下加利福尼亞半島西南方近海滯留,並將在12H內減弱為後熱帶氣旋,直至徹底消亡
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 301431
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020

The depression's center remains exposed, with any limited convection
displaced more than 90 n mi northeast of the center.  Effectively,
the system is on its way to becoming a remnant low this afternoon
if convection does not re-form closer to the center.  The initial
wind speed remains 25 kt.  The low should gradually spin down
during the next day or two over cool waters while it moves slowly
northwestward.  Only a small northeastward shift was made to
the track forecast, and the low should degenerate into a trough of
low pressure in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 20.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 20.9N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  01/1200Z 21.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  02/0000Z 21.2N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

ep0420.gif
20200630.1820.goes-17.vis.2km.04E.FOUR.25kts.1005mb.20.6N.112.9W.pc.jpg 182511wsn80uzi0w3zwx1t.jpg
LATEST.jpg 20200630.1432.f17.composite.04E.FOUR.25kts.1005mb.20.6N.112.9W.090pc.jpg
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