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96W 短暫發展 減弱消散

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-9-8 08:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2020-9-10 17:29 編輯

基本資料  
編號    :96 W
擾動編號日期:2020 09 08 08
撤編日期  :2020 09 10 06
96W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-17N-166E

20200908.0000.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.17N.166E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
asus5635 + 15 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 49 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-8 10:49 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-9-8 11:03 編輯

JTWC Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY (072224Z ASCAT-B AND 072109Z
ASCAT-A) DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-25KT) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (6).jpg

點評

數值目前是不太支持的沒錯  發表於 2020-9-9 08:48
所以機構不看好發展是嗎?  發表於 2020-9-8 22:51
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簽到天數: 49 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-9 07:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 162.3E, APPROXIMATELY
968 NM EAST OF TINIAN, CNMI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081803Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL WEAK
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080959Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATED BY 5-10KT WINDS WITH SOME 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE TUTT WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS SMALL AND
MAY NOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (7).jpg
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簽到天數: 1132 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-9 08:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-9 09:49 編輯

數值暫不支持其發展 96W_tracks_latest.png ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-120.gif
96W_gefs_latest.png 96W_b1.png db5c19d8bc3eb135ab2627e1b11ea8d3fc1f4459.jpg


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簽到天數: 1132 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-9 15:25 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-9 15:31 編輯

JTWC0600Z降評Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 162.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY
962 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 090457Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED
LLC. A 082228Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD
DOMINATED BY 5-10KT WINDS WITH SOME 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT WITH NO INDICATION OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 96W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING 96W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair (15).jpg 20200909.0700.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.17.1N.160.1E.100pc.jpg 20200909.0457.f15.85rgb.96W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.17.1N.160.9E.085pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-10 06:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1N 162.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair (16).jpg 20200909.2150.himawari-8.vis.96W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.17.1N.160E.100pc.jpg
LATEST (14).jpg
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