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2011 紅霞 南海發展 西行登陸越南 殘餘進入孟加拉灣

簽到天數: 1193 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-9-14 02:45 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:2011 ( 13 W )
名稱:紅霞 ( Noul )
114537jdmgpzxfbv94gg5b.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2020 09 14 02
JMA升格熱低日期:2020 09 15 14
CWB升格熱低日期 : 2020 09 15 20
JMA命名日期        :2020 09 16 02
停編日期          :2020 09 19 02
登陸地點          :越南 承天順化省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :23 m/s ( 45 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓990 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :120 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源:維基百科

Noul_2020_track.png
  擾動編號資料  
90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.13.4N.128.5E

20200913.1820.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.13.4N.128.5E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1193 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-14 04:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-14 04:12 編輯

兩大模式預報(EC,GFS)及整體準確率最高,極有參考價值的EC系集均看好90W將有一定程度的發展
wpac~2.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh6-144.gif ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-120.gif 90W_b13rbtop.png
90W_b13ca.png


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簽到天數: 1193 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-14 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC0600Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
ROTATION, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY TO THE NORTH. A
140122Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 140121Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS LARGELY STRAIGHT-
LINE WIND FLOW SURROUNDING AN AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING, SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT POSITION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE TRANSITING OVER THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (18).jpg 20200914.0640.himawari-8.vis.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.12.1N.126.5E.100pc.jpg
20200914.0426.gw1.89pct89h89v.90W.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.10.9N.127.9E.56pc.jpg LATEST (19).jpg
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簽到天數: 1243 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2020-9-14 21:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC21/00Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 127.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90
NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141021Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING, SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CROSSING OVER THE PHILIPPINES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AFTER
MOVING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (1).jpg
20200914.1310.himawari-8.ir.90W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.13N.125.3E.100pc.jpg
90W_b13.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-9-14 23:16 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 12Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 125E WNW 10 KT.

20091421.png
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簽到天數: 1193 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-15 00:32 | 顯示全部樓層
大致趨向越南中北部
eastasia.png 90W_tracks_latest.png
90W_b13bd.png 90W_b13ca.png
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簽到天數: 161 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2020-9-15 10:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2020-9-15 10:12 編輯

JTWC:TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 150200
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 122.8E TO 14.1N 118.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 122.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160200Z.

//

TCFA.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-9-15 12:23 | 顯示全部樓層
季風低壓,環流廣泛,能混個名子就不錯了。 LCC_IR1_CR_2750-2020-09-15-11-50.jpg
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