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2013 鯨魚 遠洋北轉 轉化溫氣

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-9-25 08:14 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:2013 ( 15 W )
名稱:鯨魚 ( Kujira )
010023s34ta3h0hrkx2ark.png
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2020 09 25 08
JMA升格熱低日期:2020 09 26 14
CWB升格熱低日期 : 2020 09 26 14
JMA命名日期  :2020 09 27 08
停編日期          :2020 09 30 14
登陸地點          :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):30 m/s ( 11 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :30 m/s ( 60 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓975 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :150 公里
十級風半徑  :  50 公里

  過去路徑圖   - 來源:維基百科
1280px-Kujira_2020_track.png

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-20N-160E

20200924.1654.f15.37h.97W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.20N.160E.055pc.jpg


以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作
b13.png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

正宜27|2020-9-25 18:09 | 顯示全部樓層
jma預測2天後增強為TD 20092709.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-25 19:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-25 19:58 編輯

EC,GFS均支持97W將有所發展,尤其GFS模式預報對其的反應尤其明顯

目前對97W未來發展較大的劣勢是其到達巔峰時的緯度很可能已經偏高
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-120 (1).gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_fh6-120.gif
97W_gefs_latest (1).png
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-25 23:19 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 15Z判定 97W亦已為LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 17N 159E ALMOST STATIONARY.
20092521.png
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-26 12:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 848 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, ASYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN A 252028Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALING A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLC AND
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
252252Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD WITH NO
DISTINCT CIRCULATION AND A LARGE SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING TO THE NORTH-EAST. 97W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (10).jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-26 14:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 158.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 160.2E, APPROXIMATELY
365 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 260248Z 88.2GHZ ATMS
IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OFFSET BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 97W IS EXPERIENCING LOW (<15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair (11).jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-26 15:59 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-9-26 16:27 編輯

JMA TD + GW 望TY
a-00.png
76a3e0fe9925bc31d08ba9c449df8db1ca13706a.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-26 16:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-9-26 16:43 編輯

JTWC TCFA
1d7509f7905298225d3e929fc0ca7bcb0a46d437.gif

點評

Sorry, 已更正  發表於 2020-9-26 16:45
咦不是,看日期那也不是白海豚,是上一個發TCFA的97W  發表於 2020-9-26 16:42
你圖放成白海豚的啦XD  發表於 2020-9-26 16:40
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