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ARB 03(92A)

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-10-15 09:51 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:ARB 03  ( 92 A )
名稱:
182159t7z1ttlntgh0sooc.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 10 15 09
撤編日期  :2020 10 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD):25 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):25 kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓   :1002 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

92A.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-16N-75E 20201015.0120.himawari-8.ir.92A.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.16N.75E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 52 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-10-15 12:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.1N
75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 92A QUICKLY INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER
THE FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (18).jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-16 02:32 | 顯示全部樓層
LLCC即將出海,JTWC評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 94
NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). A 151336Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT 92A INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER THE
FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg
20201015.1336.f17.91pct91h91v.92A.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.17.1N.75.2E.090pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
92A_gefs_latest.png
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簽到天數: 52 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-10-17 17:50 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD:ARB 03
ftrack (2).png
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簽到天數: 1168 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-17 18:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-10-17 18:47 編輯

LLCC持續裸露,92A將來路徑上的風切將成為抑制其發展的最大阻礙

20201017.0900.msg-1.vis.92A.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.17.6N.68.4E.100pc.jpg
20201017.0828.gw1.89pct89h89v.92A.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.17.6N.68.4E.71pc.jpg 92A_gefs_latest.png 未命名.png

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-10-18 02:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC1800Z降評Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 74.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED. A 171228Z SSMIS
91GHZ SATELLITE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 92A IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 92A_gefs_latest.png
20201017.1810.himawari-8.ir.92A.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.18.1N.67.7E.100pc.jpg
(雖然雲圖畫質有點差,但也沒其他新圖了,只能將就點用)


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簽到天數: 52 天

[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-10-19 18:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-10-19 18:28 編輯

JTWC撤評
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 67.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

abpwsair (20).jpg
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