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99L 冷心轉暖 短暫發展

簽到天數: 1253 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-11-27 02:57 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :99 L
擾動編號日期 :2020 11 27 02
撤編日期        :2020 11
29 02
99L.INVEST.15kts-999mb-26N-74W

20201126.1810.goes-16.vis.2km.99L.INVEST.15kts.999mb.26N.74W.pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1253 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-27 03:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-11-27 17:11 編輯

NHC重新定位,看位置應該這個才是對的,上面的圖為NHC的再一次亂定位
99L INVEST 201126 1800 27.6N 57.9W ATL 30 1008
1. Shower activity associated with a frontal low pressure system
located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has become a
little better organized today.  The low could acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or two while it
drifts south-southwestward.  After that time, the system is expected
to move north-northeastward into an area of less favorable
environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

20201126.1840.goes-16.vis.2km.99L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.27.6N.57.9W.pc.jpg two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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霧峰追風者|2020-11-27 07:58 | 顯示全部樓層
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda have
increased during the past few hours. Additional subtropical
development is possible during the next day or so while the low
drifts south-southwestward. Environmental conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for further development over the weekend as the
system begins to move north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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dom|2020-11-27 13:09 | 顯示全部樓層
部分機構認為後期有小幅增強的機會 goes16_ir_99L_202011270235.gif 99L_gefs_latest.png 99L_intensity_latest.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-28 02:41 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC略微將展望調降至Low,30%/30%
1. An elongated, non-tropical low pressure system located over 500
miles southeast of Bermuda is producing limited shower activity due
to dry air in the surrounding environment and strong upper-level
winds. Conditions are expected to remain generally unfavorable for
development this weekend as the low moves northeastward ahead of an
approaching frontal system. By early next week, the system is
expected to become absorbed by this frontal system over the
north-central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
20201127.1750.goes-16.vis.2km.99L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.25.9N.59.6W.pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-29 09:00 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC將展望調降至10%/10%
2. A trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This
system is moving north-northeastward, and development is unlikely
before it is absorbed by a non-tropical low pressure system and
frontal boundary beginning Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
two_atl_2d2 (3).png two_atl_5d2 (3).png
20201129.0030.goes-16.ir.99L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.27.1N.55.4W.100pc.jpg LATEST - 2020-11-29T085945.133.jpg
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dom|2020-11-29 13:29 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC不再認為能有所發展,FNMOC撤編
2. A trough of low pressure located about 700 miles east of Bermuda is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is
expected to merge with a non-tropical low pressure system later
today, and development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
765FDEC3-3FE8-4475-80CE-3996128F912B.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-11-29 19:50 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC停止對其進行展望
20201129.1120.goes-16.vis.2km.99L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.27.1N.55.4W.pc.jpg 99L_gefs_latest.png 20201129.0528.gw1.89pct89h89v.99L.INVEST.25kts.1010mb.27.1N.55.4W.97pc.jpg LATEST - 2020-11-29T164450.462.jpg
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