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12S.Eloise 登陸莫三比克

簽到天數: 1257 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2021-1-11 03:03 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號:07-20202021 ( 12 S )
名稱:Eloise
101306ezp4qihxz4uoji4o.jpg
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2021 01 11 02
JTWC升格日期:2021 01 17 14
命名日期  :2021 01 17 13
撤編日期  :2021 01 26 08
登陸地點  :馬達加斯加
                                      
                       莫三比克

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :80 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):85 kt ( TY )
海平面最低氣壓967 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

99S.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.9S.85.5E
20210110.1830.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.9S.85.5E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作


評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1257 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-1-12 03:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0S 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 643 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111623Z METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANINZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INVEST 99S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      

abpwsair.jpg 20210111.1820.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.11S.86E.100pc.jpg
20210111.0743.gw1.89pct89h89v.99S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.10.4S.87.6E.95pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
cyclogenese.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-1-13 05:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格TD,數值對後期的強度發展頗為看好
99S INVEST 210112 1800 12.5S 83.5E SHEM 25 1004

20210112.2110.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.5S.83.5E.100pc.jpg 20210112.1035.f15.85rgb.99S.INVEST.20kts.1003mb.12.1S.84.7E.080pc.jpg
cyclogenese.png 99S_gefs_latest.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_safr_11.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-1-14 06:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC2230Z提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 77.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 77.7E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 131336Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 131541Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair - 2021-01-14T062236.911.jpg 99S_gefs_latest (2).png 20210113.2150.himawari-8.ir.99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.5S.77.7E.100pc.jpg 20210113.1959.gw1.89pct89h89v.99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.5S.77.7E.80pc.jpg
20210113.1959.gw1.89hbt.99S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.13.5S.77.7E.80pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-1-16 03:31 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號為擾動區第7號,上望中度熱帶風暴
SWI_20202021.png LATEST - 2021-01-16T032901.957.jpg
20210115.0857.gw1.89pct89h89v.99S.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.11.2S.70.4E.97pc.jpg 20210115.0857.gw1.89hbt.99S.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.11.2S.70.4E.97pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-1-16 06:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC2100Z發布TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 67.9E TO 13.4S 61.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 67.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
68.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 67.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407NM  
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 151152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A  
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH. A 1642Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS 25-
30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE SW QUADRANT.  INVEST
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
SLOWLY INTENSIFIES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.//
NNNN
sh9921.gif 99S_152100sair.jpg
07S.png
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dom|2021-1-16 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR升格熱帶低氣壓,上望強烈熱帶風暴,預測+24H命名
SWI_20202021-2.png

99S INVEST 210116 0600 12.4S 66.2E SHEM 30 1000

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dom|2021-1-17 14:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-1-17 14:30 編輯

MFR命名Eloise
FKIO20 FMEE 170615
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210117/0615Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: ELOISE
ADVISORY NR: 2021/01
OBS PSN: 17/0600Z S1233 E06226
CB: WI 240NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: W 08KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 17/1200Z S1249 E06110
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 17/1800Z S1307 E05951
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 18/0000Z S1327 E05826
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 18/0600Z S1349 E05658
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 40KT
RMK: CB ONLY ON WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
NXT MSG: 20210117/1200Z=
SWI_20202021.png
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