老農民版夜神月

JTWC降評Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY
187 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270200Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (<15KTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, WHICH IS
HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST
94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

數值對94P二度發展的反應明顯,BoM亦持續關注中

The monsoon trough continues to extend across the Gulf of Carpentaria and central Cape York Peninsula and into the northern Coral Sea.

A tropical low that is currently located over Cape York Peninsula is likely to meander across the area today then shift eastwards and emerge over the northwestern Coral Sea, most likely late on Friday or on Saturday. The environment is forecast to be conducive for tropical cyclone development with a MODERATE chance from Sunday. The tropical system is expected to move eastwards or southeastwards away from the Queensland east coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low
Saturday:
Low
Sunday:
Moderate

EC

GFS系集

周子堯@FB

JTWC 評級 Medium，預估未來強度可達澳式C1~C2以上

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 142.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR DEPICT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). WHILE THE
INVEST REMAINS OVER LAND, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0330Z發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 300330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 147.9E TO 13.8S 154.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY
260NM NORTH EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292253Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310330Z.
//
NNNN

dom

BOM預計+24命名，上望澳式C3

dom

JTWC升格17P
17P.INVEST.21013100.40kts.993mb.13.9S.152.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING #1
WTPS33 PGTW 310300
310000Z POSIT: NEAR 13.9S 152.3E
MOVING 090 DEGREES TRUE AT 08 KNOTS
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
31/00Z, WINDS 040 KTS, GUSTS TO 050 KTS
31/12Z, WINDS 050 KTS, GUSTS TO 065 KTS
01/00Z, WINDS 065 KTS, GUSTS TO 080 KTS
01/12Z, WINDS 070 KTS, GUSTS TO 085 KTS
02/00Z, WINDS 075 KTS, GUSTS TO 090 KTS
03/00Z, WINDS 060 KTS, GUSTS TO 075 KTS
04/00Z, WINDS 045 KTS, GUSTS TO 055 KTS
05/00Z, WINDS 030 KTS, GUSTS TO 040 KTS

dom

BoM命名Lucas

2021-01-31 06Z
- LUCAS (11U) -
Position: 13.9S 153.1E
Intensity: 35kt 994hPa

Headline:

Tropical cyclone Lucas has formed in the Coral Sea, well east of Cape York Peninsula, and is moving east away from the Queensland coast.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Lucas at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 153.1 degrees East , 430 kilometres northeast of Willis Island and 870 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Lucas is expected to continue moving eastwards while intensifying further.

dom

BoM將其升格為澳式C2，JTWC12Z亦定強至55/987，認為還能再稍微增強

17P.LUCAS.21013112.55kts.987mb.13.1S.155.2E.

FKAU05 ADRM 311322
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210131/1200Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: LUCAS
ADVISORY NR: 2021/1
OBS PSN: 31/1200Z S1318 E15524
CB: WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: E 08KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 991HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 31/1800 S1318 E15642
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 01/0000 S1336 E15818
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 01/0600 S1418 E16000
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 01/1200 S1500 E16148
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210131/1900Z