TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S
169.5E AT 260600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE LAST 06 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM
LIES TO THE NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND UNDER GOOD DIVERGENT REGION. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREE
CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND THEN INCREASING TO MODEARTE TO
HIGH.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P
WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
170.3E AT 270600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 TO
30 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND THEN INCREASING TO MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 280212 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE [996HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
170.8E AT 280000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST.
A MODERATE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
DEPRESSION LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GOOD OUTFLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD05F IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BEFORE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP, IT WILL POSE AN
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO FIJI.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
EASTWARD TRACK BEFORE A EAST SOUTHEAST TRACK AND POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 16.4S 172.5E MOV E AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 16.7S 174.2E MOV E AT 08 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 17.4S 176.1E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 18.5S 177.6E MOV E AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 0830UTC
TONIGHT OR EARLIER.
WTPS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 170.3E TO 15.6S 174.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291500Z.
//
NNNN
GALE WARNING 022 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 292049 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 175.4
EAST AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 175.4E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS BY
300600UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.9S 168.8E AT 300600UTC
AND NEAR 16.6S 177.5E AT 301200UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC WELLINGTON.
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